Deckers Shares Slide as Growth Concerns Mount
Key Points
- Deckers shares fell about 3% after Needham removed the stock from its Conviction List
- Analysts cite slowing growth at UGG and Hoka, including weaker DTC trends
- Despite recent weakness, Deckers has posted solid revenue growth and EPS beats
- Technical signals and valuation models present a contrasting, more positive view
Deckers Stock Drops on Needham Conviction List Removal
Deckers Outdoor Corporation shares traded about 3% lower in the morning session on January 9, 2026, after Needham removed the footwear and apparel company from its Conviction List. The research firm pointed to "fundamental cracks" in Deckers' key brands, UGG and Hoka, and said it believes both have entered a slower-growth stage. Needham highlighted that UGG has posted three consecutive year-over-year declines in direct-to-consumer sales, while Hoka recorded single-digit growth in that channel for the first time since it was acquired. The move comes amid a broader reassessment of Deckers' valuation, with concerns around new trade tariffs and brand maturation weighing on sentiment. The stock has been volatile, registering 12 moves greater than 5% over the past year, and is trading 53.3% below its 52-week high of $223.11 from January 2025, at $104.09 per share. Deckers is down 2.5% since the beginning of 2026.
Mixed Fundamentals: Slowing Guidance but Solid Recent Results
The latest share-price pressure follows earlier weakness tied to guidance. About eight months ago, Deckers shares fell 19.9% after the company issued weak first-quarter fiscal 2025 guidance, with both revenue and EPS forecasts for the next quarter missing expectations. Management cited macro uncertainty related to global trade policies and softer-than-expected domestic demand, and withdrew full-year guidance due to lack of visibility. However, the most recently reported fourth quarter showed more resilient operating performance. Constant currency revenue rose 7.5%, driven by a 10% increase in Hoka sales and a 3.6% gain in UGG, and earnings per share beat expectations, supported by solid international growth and stable margins. Even so, Evercore downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, arguing that Deckers may be entering a lower-growth phase as both UGG and Hoka show signs of deceleration. Longer term, investors who bought $1,000 of Deckers shares five years ago would now hold an investment worth $1,910, and a $1,000 investment made in January 2016 would be worth $14,547.43 as of January 9, 2026, according to separate calculations that exclude dividends.
Technical Signals and Analyst Ratings Offer a Counterpoint
While some fundamental concerns have pressured the stock, several recent technical indicators and analyst assessments present a more constructive picture. Zacks Investment Research noted that Deckers recently moved back above both its 20-day and 200-day simple moving averages, levels often viewed as short- and long-term support. Over the past four weeks, the shares have gained 5.9%, and the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Zacks also reported one upward earnings estimate revision and no downward revisions for the current fiscal year, with the consensus estimate moving higher. Separately, Simply Wall St's discounted cash flow analysis estimated an intrinsic value of about $136.18 per share, implying a 21.2% discount to a recent closing price of $107.36 and suggesting the shares are undervalued on that model. On a broader sell-side basis, MarketBeat data show Deckers with an average "Hold" rating and a consensus price target of $116.79, with two analysts rating the stock Strong Buy, nine Buy, twelve Hold and three Sell.
Institutional Positioning and Recent Trading Performance
Institutional investors remain heavily involved in Deckers, with 97.79% of the stock owned by institutions according to recent filings. Activity has been mixed. Moran Wealth Management LLC cut its position by 53.6% in the third quarter, selling 55,693 shares and ending the period with 48,271 shares valued at about $4.89 million. In contrast, KLP Kapitalforvaltning AS increased its holdings by 21.0% in the same quarter, adding 30,700 shares to reach 177,200 shares worth approximately $17.96 million, representing about 0.12% of the company. Other smaller institutions, including American National Bank & Trust, True Wealth Design LLC and several family offices, have also added modest positions. On the trading side, MarketBeat data show Deckers shares recently opened at $107.29, up 4.1% on the day, with a market capitalization of $15.64 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.90 and a beta of 1.15. The stock's 50-day and 200-day moving averages stand at $93.79 and $101.68, respectively, and its 12-month trading range spans from $78.91 to $223.98.
Key Takeaways
- Needham’s removal of Deckers from its Conviction List underscores growing concern that UGG and Hoka are shifting from high-growth to slower-growth phases.
- Recent financial results show that, despite softer guidance and DTC deceleration, Deckers is still delivering revenue growth and earnings beats, especially internationally.
- Technical indicators, upward earnings revisions and some valuation models contrast with the cautious fundamental narrative, creating a divided outlook on the stock.
- Institutional ownership remains high but repositioning is evident, with some large holders trimming exposure while others increase stakes, reflecting differing views on risk and value.
References
- 1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-deckers-deck-shares-trading-163116972.html
- 2. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-moran-wealth-management-llc-has-489-million-position-in-deckers-outdoor-corporation-deck-2026-01-09/
- 3. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/momentum-investor-1-stock-could-145004734.html
- 4. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-klp-kapitalforvaltning-as-has-1796-million-holdings-in-deckers-outdoor-corporation-deck-2026-01-09/
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