Maduro Capture Jolts Global Markets, Lifts Havens

January 5, 2026 at 07:10 UTC

5 min read

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin surge visualization as safe-haven assets rally on Maduro capture news

Key Points

Gold, silver and Bitcoin jump as investors react to the US capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro
Oil prices swing but remain constrained by a global supply glut and Venezuela’s small current output
Asian and US equity futures edge higher, with tech and defense shares helping steady risk sentiment
Bitcoin ETFs see their strongest inflows in weeks as crypto is viewed as both hedge and risk asset

Safe-haven metals surge on Venezuela shock

Gold and silver prices climbed sharply at the start of the first full trading week of 2026 as investors sought safety following the US military operation in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. In Monday morning Asian trade, gold was about 1.8% higher around $4,408–$4,420 an ounce, while silver gained roughly 3.5% to nearly 5%, with some reports citing spot silver near $75–$76 an ounce. Other accounts put intraday moves at about 2% for gold and 6% for silver. The rally builds on a record-setting 2025, when gold logged its best annual performance since 1979, rising more than 60% and touching an all-time high of $4,549.71 on 26 December, while silver also posted outsized gains. Analysts linked the latest advance to heightened geopolitical uncertainty after President Donald Trump said the US would “run” Venezuela and required “total access” to its oil reserves, even as some observers judged the immediate risk of a prolonged conflict to be limited. Precious metals were also supported by expectations of further US interest-rate cuts, central-bank bullion buying, and concerns over long-term fiscal risks in the US, factors that had already underpinned last year’s rally.

Bitcoin and crypto rebound as ETF inflows accelerate

Crypto markets proved resilient in the face of the Venezuela shock. Bitcoin traded back above $92,000 on Monday in Asia, around $92,265–$92,947, up roughly 1%–2.3% over 24 hours, while the broader crypto market capitalization rose to about $3.2–$3.23 trillion. Over the prior three days, Bitcoin’s price had climbed nearly 5%, surpassing $90,000. The move coincided with a sharp pickup in flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. On Friday, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $287.4 million of inflows, its largest single-day haul since October 8, 2024. Across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs, total inflows reached $471.3 million, the highest daily total since mid-November, lifting weekly net inflows to $459 million. Fidelity’s FBTC took in $88.1 million, Bitwise’s BITB added $41.5 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC attracted $15.4 million. Market participants cited several drivers, including start-of-year portfolio rebalancing after Bitcoin underperformed in late 2025 and a shift from tax-loss harvesting in Q4 to a “long bias” in Q1 2026. Some analysts argued that the forcible capture of Maduro underscored Bitcoin’s appeal as a non‑censorable, decentralized store of value in a polarizing world, and suggested that the Trump administration’s stance and personal investments among political allies reinforced a regulatory climate seen as favorable to digital assets.

Oil swings as traders weigh Venezuela’s reserves against glut

Crude oil prices were volatile but ultimately showed only modest moves as traders balanced Venezuela’s vast reserves against its limited current output and an existing global surplus. West Texas Intermediate futures traded around $56.6–$57.5 per barrel, near their lowest levels since early 2021, while Brent hovered close to $61 per barrel. Prices initially fell when electronic trading opened, then briefly rose by about 0.5%–0.7% before slipping again. Several reports noted that oil futures had dropped to four‑year lows around the time of the operation. Analysts highlighted that Venezuela currently produces less than 1 million barrels of crude per day, roughly 1% or less of global output, and that key infrastructure such as the Jose port, Amuay refinery and Orinoco Belt fields were not damaged in the US attacks. OPEC+ decided to keep production steady through the first quarter, and commentators stressed that any short‑term disruption to Venezuelan supply could be offset elsewhere. At the same time, President Trump’s pledge to invite US oil majors to invest billions in rebuilding Venezuela’s energy sector raised the prospect of higher future supply, though most assessments said restoring output would take years and substantial capital.

Equities, dollar and regional markets show measured response

Despite the geopolitical shock, equity markets and major currencies showed a relatively calm reaction. US stock futures were little changed to modestly higher, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up around 0.1%, S&P 500 futures gaining about 0.1%–0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rising between 0.1% and 0.5%. In Asia, benchmarks in Japan and South Korea jumped roughly 2.3%–2.9% to fresh records, while Taiwan also advanced more than 2%, helped by strength in technology and defense-related shares. Broader Asia-Pacific indices gained about 1.2%, and Hong Kong and Australia posted smaller increases. The US dollar index climbed above 98.5 to a two‑week high, with the greenback up about 0.2% against the yen and slightly stronger versus the euro, as investors weighed the Venezuela operation alongside a busy week of US data, including the December jobs report. Market strategists generally downplayed the likelihood of a major, lasting economic shock from the episode, pointing to Venezuela’s diminished role in global oil supply, even as they acknowledged that the move adds to an already elevated backdrop of geopolitical risk.

Key Takeaways

The Venezuela operation triggered a classic flight to safety, with gold, silver and Bitcoin all gaining even as global equities largely held their ground.
Oil’s muted reaction reflects Venezuela’s small current output and an existing supply glut, with traders more focused on medium-term policy and investment decisions.
Robust inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest institutional investors are using crypto both as a macro hedge and as part of routine portfolio rebalancing.
Market pricing indicates investors are treating the Maduro capture as an additional risk factor rather than a systemic shock, keeping attention on upcoming US economic data.