Wall Street Weighs Santa Rally as JPMorgan Hits Highs

December 23, 2025 at 19:39 UTC

6 min read

JPMorgan stock price chart showing record highs and bullish S&P 500 outlook

Key Points

Debate grows over a 2025 Santa Claus rally as the S&P 500 hovers near records
JPMorgan trades around record highs amid reports of potential crypto trading
Analysts outline bullish technical targets for the S&P 500 into early 2026
MedTech and AI-linked names feature prominently in late-2025 stock screens

Seasonal patterns and the 2025 Santa Claus rally debate

With U.S. equities close to record levels, investors are focused on whether the traditional year-end “Santa Claus rally” will materialize in 2025. The Santa Claus rally, defined as the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, was popularized by Yale Hirsch and is the first leg of the Stock Trader’s Almanac’s “January indicator trifecta.” Historically, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1.6% over this period since 1928, and 1.3% since 1950. A Zacks summary of Reuters data notes that over the last 100 years December has delivered an average S&P 500 gain of about 1.28%, but performance has weakened: in the last 25 years December’s average gain has been just 0.5%, and over the last five years the month has averaged a 0.2% loss, making it the second-worst month after September. The index has fallen in the last two weeks, and commentary describes market “fragility” even as traders hope for “a little festive sparkle.” Technical commentary from Mark Arbeter points out that the Santa period theoretically begins on December 24 this year and that the S&P 500 has never logged three consecutive down Santa periods, though the last two were negative.

Technical strategists map out higher S&P 500 targets for 2026

Despite near-term caution around seasonality, several technical strategists see scope for further gains into early 2026. Arbeter highlights a bullish reversal pattern in the S&P 500 from February to June 2025, with an initial measured move target of 7,165 and a first Fibonacci extension range of 7,480 to 7,887. He also notes a larger inverse head-and-shoulders formation that, if completed with a breakout to new highs, would imply an initial target around 7,300 and an extension range of 7,400 to 7,540. Separately, Wolfe Research’s Rob Ginsberg writes that volatility has “collapsed sharply,” with the VIX down 22% since the prior Wednesday and at year lows, and argues that a break above recent overhead levels could carry the S&P 500 toward a 7,250–7,300 objective early next year. Wolfe points to 10‑year Treasury yields holding channel support as a constructive backdrop, while flagging that housing stocks remain weak on a relative basis. Both sets of analysis frame the current consolidation as potentially part of a larger bullish roadmap, contingent on the index clearing prior highs.

JPMorgan’s record run and potential move into institutional crypto

JPMorgan Chase shares are trading near record territory as the broader market grinds higher into year-end. On December 23, 2025, JPMorgan stock hovered in the mid-$320s after closing the prior session at $323.09, with a session high of $323.23. Data cited from Investing.com show a 2025 year-to-date return in the mid‑30% range and new highs around $322–$323. Against that backdrop, Reuters, citing Bloomberg, reported that JPMorgan is exploring offering cryptocurrency trading to institutional clients, potentially including spot and derivatives products, subject to client demand. JPMorgan declined to comment, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the report, but framed the effort as part of a broader move by Wall Street firms into digital assets. The bank has already been active in blockchain initiatives, including arranging a short-term bond for Galaxy Digital on the Solana blockchain. MarketBeat data show JPMorgan widely held by institutions, with recent 13F filings from firms such as Signal Advisors Wealth LLC, BDF Gestion and Brady Family Wealth LLC increasing or adjusting positions as the stock approaches consensus analyst targets clustered around the low‑$330s.

Macro backdrop: GDP strength, rate-cut debate and M&A revival

The late‑2025 equity rally is unfolding against a backdrop of solid U.S. growth and shifting expectations for monetary policy. Reuters data summarized by ts2.tech indicate that U.S. GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, above a 3.3% forecast, pushing the 10‑year Treasury yield to around 4.19%. Zacks commentary notes that investors are watching incoming data, including delayed GDP and durable goods reports, to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will ease further as 2026 approaches, after cutting rates at three straight meetings and signaling limited near-term moves. Broader market pieces from Zacks describe 2025 as a “wild year,” with world equities adding $14 trillion in value, the U.S. dollar down 9%, and strong investor interest in artificial intelligence and higher-yielding debt. In corporate activity, Dealogic data cited by Zacks show global M&A volume up 41% year over year to $4.81 trillion so far in 2025, the second-highest total on record, with 70 deals above $10 billion. EY-Parthenon forecasts a further 3% increase in deal volume for 2026, with private equity transactions expected to grow 5%, supporting investment banking pipelines at firms including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

Sector themes: MedTech resilience and AI-driven profitability screens

Beyond index-level moves, several sector and stock-selection themes are prominent in late‑December research. Zacks analysts highlight the MedTech industry’s resilience, noting that the Dow Jones U.S. Select Medical Equipment Index is up about 8% in 2025 and that the global MedTech market, valued at $549.51 billion in 2025, is projected to reach $853.37 billion by 2035. Reports emphasize normalizing procedure volumes, easing elective surgery backlogs and growing adoption of minimally invasive and robotics-assisted procedures, with the minimally invasive surgery market expected to grow from $94.45 billion in 2025 to $199.3 billion by 2030. AI-enabled imaging, diagnostics and remote monitoring are cited as key growth drivers, with the AI in healthcare market projected to expand from $26.57 billion in 2024 to $505.59 billion by 2033. Within equities, Zacks screens call out NVIDIA, Micron Technology and Seagate Technology as S&P 500 constituents with high net profit margins, and identify NVIDIA, Ralph Lauren, Expedia and Cencora as stocks trading near 52‑week highs with ongoing momentum. These stock-level views sit alongside broader dividend and high-yield screens that focus on income-generating S&P 500 names as investors look toward 2026.

Key Takeaways

Seasonal statistics and recent weakness make the 2025 Santa Claus period a closely watched test of sentiment rather than a guaranteed tailwind.
Technical roadmaps from multiple strategists converge on S&P 500 targets around 7,200–7,300, but stress the need for a confirmed breakout above prior highs.
JPMorgan’s near-record share price, combined with reports of potential institutional crypto trading, reinforces its role as a bellwether for both banking and digital-asset adoption.
Robust U.S. GDP data, a live rate-cut debate and a sharp rebound in global M&A are jointly shaping expectations for banks, dealmakers and risk assets into 2026.
MedTech, AI-linked chipmakers and other screened leaders illustrate how investors are pairing macro views with targeted sector and profitability themes at year-end.