Joby Aviation: High-Risk, High-Reward eVTOL Play

Joby’s Vertically Integrated Air Taxi Strategy

Joby Aviation is pursuing a different path from many electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) peers by planning to build, own and operate its aircraft rather than primarily selling them to third parties. While Archer Aviation is positioning itself as an original equipment manufacturer, Joby’s main goal is to create a vertically integrated transportation services company. That model would see future revenue driven mainly by passenger services, not aircraft sales.

This strategy means Joby must fund not only aircraft development but also the infrastructure and operations needed for an air taxi network. The company will have to invest in manufacturing capacity, vertiports and a sizeable operational fleet before meaningful service revenue arrives. Those requirements add business-model risk on top of the sector’s already significant technology and regulatory challenges.

Joby has largely developed its own technology and components, rather than leaning heavily on established suppliers. This approach has supported its early lead in certification but also increases the scope of what the company must execute internally. As a result, capital intensity and execution risk are central parts of the investment narrative around Joby’s shares.

Progress and Uncertainty in FAA Certification

Joby is described as being ahead in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification race compared with other eVTOL developers. The company is already in the final stage of certification, a phase in which FAA pilots test the aircraft and authorities assess reliability and operational readiness. This progress is a key reason analysts see Joby as being closer to commercial operations than many competitors.

Despite that advanced status, there is no guarantee that Joby will receive full FAA approval. Certification remains a binary risk factor for the stock: failure or delay could materially affect timelines for service launch and revenue generation. The need for regulatory sign-off is common to all eVTOL companies, but it is particularly important for Joby given its plan to operate its own air taxi services at scale.

Regulatory complexity is likely to extend beyond initial certification into ongoing oversight of operations. Joby’s long-term plan also includes potential autonomous aircraft, which would face additional technical and regulatory hurdles. For now, certification of piloted eVTOLs remains the immediate focus and a key determinant of when investors might see commercial ramp-up.

Financing Needs and Shareholder Dilution Risk

Analyst forecasts highlight substantial expected cash burn at Joby over the next several years as it builds out manufacturing and infrastructure. Wall Street consensus figures cited for 2026 suggest cash burn of about $646 million, following an estimated $538 million in 2025. Against a projected starting net cash balance of $710 million in 2026, the company is widely expected to raise additional capital.

The same consensus shows Joby ending 2026 with around $1.0 billion in net cash, implying that an equity raise is likely during that year. That prospect raises the risk of dilution for existing shareholders, especially if capital markets conditions are less favorable at the time of issuance. The need to fund vertiports, production capacity and an operational fleet before generating significant revenue from air taxis underlines this financing pressure.

Joby’s focus on services revenue rather than equipment sales also affects its cash-flow profile. Whereas Archer seeks earlier revenue by selling aircraft as an OEM, Joby is positioning itself for longer-term recurring revenue streams but with greater upfront investment. Investors weighing the stock are therefore balancing potential upside from a scaled service model against the near- to medium-term dilution risk.

Competitive Threats and Strategic Partnerships

A major long-term risk identified for Joby is competition from Boeing’s subsidiary Wisk. Wisk plans to develop autonomous eVTOLs and operate its own air taxi services. Because its aircraft concept does not require a pilot on board, Wisk could potentially undercut Joby on pricing if it achieves regulatory approval and technical reliability at scale.

At the same time, Joby has secured several notable partnerships and investors. Delta Air Lines has invested in the company and plans to use air taxis to fly passengers to airports, while Uber will list Joby’s air taxi services on its app. Toyota is supporting Joby’s manufacturing operations, and the company is working with Nvidia on potential future autonomous eVTOL capabilities.

Analysts note that autonomous eVTOLs, such as those Wisk is targeting, face significantly greater technical, regulatory and cost challenges than piloted aircraft. Joby is expected to have a first-mover advantage if it secures certification and launches services ahead of autonomous competitors. How quickly it can scale operations, and how rivals progress, will be crucial to the longer-term risk–reward balance.