Markets Slide Ahead of Nvidia Earnings, US Jobs Data

November 18, 2025 at 07:12 UTC

5 min read

Nvidia stock chart falling ahead of earnings and US jobs data, tech sector volatility visualized

Key Points

Global equity markets, especially in Asia and the US, have experienced significant declines driven by tech sector sell-offs and concerns over stretched AI-related valuations.
Nvidia's upcoming Q3 earnings report, scheduled for Wednesday, is highly anticipated as a key indicator of the AI market's sustainability and datacenter demand.
Investors are also focused on the delayed US September jobs report due Thursday, which will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations amid reduced odds of a December rate cut.
Berkshire Hathaway's recent multibillion-dollar stake in Alphabet contrasts with broad tech sell-offs, while other major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot are set to report earnings this week.

Global Market Declines Amid Tech Sell-Off and AI Valuation Concerns

Asian and US stock markets have experienced notable declines recently, largely driven by a sell-off in technology shares and growing investor anxiety over the sustainability of high valuations in AI-related companies. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 550 points (approximately 1.2%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each declined nearly 1%. Asian benchmarks followed suit, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 dropping 3%, Seoul's Kospi falling 3.1%, and Taiwan's Taiex declining 2.3%. The sell-off was particularly pronounced in semiconductor and chipmaker stocks, including Nvidia, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and TSMC. Nvidia shares fell about 2% ahead of its earnings report, reflecting investor caution despite the company's strong performance earlier in the year. Other AI-related stocks such as Super Micro Computer also saw significant declines. The tech sector's weakness extended to crypto-related stocks, with Bitcoin falling below $92,000, down more than 25% from its early October peak, dragging down companies like Coinbase and Robinhood Markets. This broad-based selling pressure has been exacerbated by concerns over stretched valuations, accelerating AI-related depreciation, and increased debt issuance among Big Tech firms.

Nvidia Earnings and US Jobs Report: Market Focus and Expectations

Investor attention is sharply focused on Nvidia's fiscal third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after market close on Wednesday. Nvidia, a central player in the AI chip market, is expected to report strong datacenter revenue growth of approximately 55% year-over-year and maintain gross margins near 73%, supported by rising average selling prices and a substantial order backlog estimated to exceed $500 billion through 2026. However, the market is closely watching for any signs of softness in datacenter demand or margin compression, which could trigger rapid market reactions. Concurrently, the US government is set to release the delayed September jobs report on Thursday, a critical data point that will influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. The labor market data is under heightened scrutiny as recent Fed communications have signaled caution, with Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson highlighting downside risks and Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocating for a potential rate cut in December. Nevertheless, market-implied probabilities for a December rate cut have declined significantly from over 90% a month ago to around 40-45%, reflecting uncertainty about the economic outlook. The release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes on Wednesday will also provide additional insight into the central bank's policy stance.

Corporate Earnings and Market Rotation Amid Economic Uncertainty

This week also features earnings reports from major retailers including Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Gap, which will offer valuable insights into consumer spending trends ahead of the holiday season. The broader earnings season has been positive, with approximately 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts in the third quarter and earnings growth accelerating to 14.6% year-over-year, more than doubling initial expectations. Despite this, investors have been rotating out of high-flying technology stocks into sectors perceived as more stable or undervalued, a trend described as a market rotation. This shift is partly driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve potentially pausing or slowing its rate cut cycle amid persistent inflationary pressures. Notably, Berkshire Hathaway has made a significant investment in Alphabet, acquiring nearly $5 billion in shares, marking a rare large-scale tech bet by the conglomerate and providing some support to the tech sector. Meanwhile, companies like Dell Technologies have faced downgrades amid concerns about AI server market dynamics, and Tesla's shares have shown volatility due to supply chain adjustments and competitive pressures in China.

Bond Yields, Currency Movements, and Global Economic Indicators

Alongside equity market developments, bond markets have reflected mixed signals. In Japan, yields on 20-year government bonds rose to levels not seen since 1999, influenced by government plans to increase spending and delay debt reduction efforts. The Japanese yen has weakened against the US dollar and euro, reaching multi-month lows. In the US, 10-year Treasury yields have fluctuated slightly, with prices rising on speculation that upcoming economic data may reveal economic weakness and easing inflation, potentially supporting further Fed rate cuts. European government bond yields have generally moved lower, with the European Commission raising its 2025 Eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1.3% while maintaining inflation expectations. ECB officials have noted ongoing financial stability risks amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff impacts. Market participants are pricing in a very low probability of an ECB rate cut at the December meeting. These global fixed income and currency market movements underscore the complex interplay of economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical factors influencing investor sentiment.

Key Takeaways

Global equity markets are under pressure due to tech sector sell-offs and concerns about inflated AI-related stock valuations ahead of Nvidia's earnings.
Nvidia's Q3 report and the delayed US September jobs data are pivotal events that will shape market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
Despite broad tech weakness, Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Alphabet highlights selective confidence in certain technology stocks.
Investors are rotating into more stable sectors amid uncertainty over the pace of Fed rate cuts and economic growth prospects.