CPI Match and Powell Backing
Key Points
- December U.S. CPI matched forecasts and a softer core print has boosted Fed rate-cut odds, which supported firmer equity futures.
- Major central-bank leaders issued coordinated backing for Fed Chair Powell, which reduced policy uncertainty and tempered Treasury volatility.
- JPMorgan (JPM)'s Q4 report included an Apple (AAPL) Card reserve alongside stronger net interest income, which produced a mixed stock reaction as investors weighed reserves and weaker investment-banking fees.
- President Trump's suggestion of a 10% cap on credit-card interest pressured card issuers and payment networks, which weighed on those equities.
Global Market Summary
The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.35%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) eased 0.28% and the Dow Jones (DJIA) fell 0.92% as mixed December CPI prints and the start of bank earnings produced cautious trading. European markets were mixed with the CAC (FRA40) down 0.14%, the FTSE (UKX) roughly flat (-0.03%) and Germany's DAX (DAX) up 0.06% as continental activity tracked U.S. headlines. In Asia the Nikkei (NKY) surged 3.10% while Hong Kong (HSI) rose 0.90% and Shanghai (000001.SS) slipped 0.64%, leaving regional performance divergent.
Top Movers
Energy led as XLE rose 1.33% and consumer staples XLP gained 1.14%. Financials lagged with XLF down 1.93%, while technology VGT and healthcare XLV eased modestly (-0.37% and -0.52%). Notable equities included THH (+138.27%), TTMI (+20.47%) and MRNA (+16.37%) on the upside, and RGC (-24.25%), TVTX (-14.66%) and PGNY (-11.17%) on the downside.
Macro highlights
December U.S. CPI matched forecasts with headline +0.3% month-over-month (2.7% YoY) and core at +0.2% MoM (2.6% YoY); the softer core print boosted Fed rate-cut odds and supported firmer equity futures. Major central-bank leaders issued a coordinated statement backing Fed Chair Powell, a move market commentators said should reduce near-term policy uncertainty and temper Treasury volatility.
News that moved markets
JPMorgan (JPM)'s Q4 report, which included a $2.2bn Apple (AAPL) Card reserve alongside stronger net interest income, produced a mixed stock reaction as investors weighed reserve and weaker investment-banking fees. President Trump's suggestion of a 10% cap on credit-card interest pressured card issuers and payment networks, and UBS acting as stabilizing manager for Raiffeisen's €650m AT1 offering was noted as supportive for European bank AT1 spreads. Several completed transactions closed, notably J.F. Lehman & Company's acquisition of Wellman Dynamics, Nukkleus Inc.'s purchase of Star 26 Capital and Intuitive Machines' acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems. Announced deals included CI Global Asset Management's agreement to acquire Invesco's Canadian investment fund assets and Polygon Labs' planned acquisition of Coinme and Sequence for $250M+.
Upcoming session watchlist
- CN Balance of Trade (DEC) consensus $113.6B vs $111.68B prior, Jan 14, 03:00 AM | Indicates export/import strength and overall external demand for economic growth.
- CN Exports YoY (DEC) vs 5.9% prior, Jan 14, 03:00 AM | Signals export performance and external demand, informing trade and growth dynamics.
- CN Imports YoY (DEC) consensus 0.8% vs 1.9% prior, Jan 14, 03:00 AM | Reflects domestic demand and import strength, informing trade flows and growth.
- US Retail Sales MoM (NOV) consensus 0.4% vs 0% prior, Jan 14, 01:30 PM | Monthly consumer spending gauge, indicating demand strength and near-term growth.
- US PPI MoM (NOV) consensus 0.3%, Jan 14, 01:30 PM | Measures wholesale inflationary pressure and producer-price momentum for inflation trend.
Key Takeaways
- U.S. benchmarks slipped as mixed December CPI prints and the start of bank earnings produced cautious trading; the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq and Dow all closed lower.
- Energy led sector gains while financials lagged, as XLE and consumer staples XLP rose and XLF underperformed amid earnings and CPI-driven cautious positioning.
- JPMorgan (JPM)'s Q4 report had mixed market impact as investors weighed the Apple (AAPL) Card reserve and stronger net interest income against weaker investment-banking fees.
- European markets tracked U.S. headlines with mixed returns while UBS's stabilizing role in Raiffeisen's AT1 offering was noted as supportive for European bank AT1 spreads.
References
- 1. https://ca.investing.com/news/company-news/ubs-to-stabilize-raiffeisen-banks-650-million-at1-bond-offering-93CH-4398430
- 2. https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20362304-audioeye-announces-preliminary-fourth-quarter-2025-results
- 3. https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20361667-petrotal-announces-q4-2025-operations-and-financial-updates-and-appointment-of-chief
- 4. https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20361818-heliostar-provides-2026-guidance-and-growth-plan
- 5. https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20362037-global-atomic-announces-bought-deal-public-offering-for-gross-proceeds-of-c-25_0-million
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