CPI Match and Powell Backing
January 13: December CPI matched forecasts; softer core lifted rate-cut odds and coordinated backing of Powell reduced policy uncertainty.
DOJ Probe Elevated Market Volatility
January 12: DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell prompted early risk-off flows and higher volatility; U.S. equities later recovered to modest gains.
Softer U.S. jobs spurred risk-on rally
January 9: The December jobs revisions prompted a reassessment of Fed easing odds, lifted S&P futures and supported cyclicals and small-cap gains.
Japan consumer confidence drop
January 8: Japan's consumer confidence fell to 37.2, pressuring Asian equities; a narrower US trade deficit and ECB survey shaped risk sentiment.
Venezuelan crude move hit energy stocks
January 7: Trump's announcement of 30-50m barrels pushed benchmarks lower, pressuring energy stocks and contributing to US and European declines.
Dovish Fed Commentary Lifted Risk Assets
January 6: Miran's comment on well over 100 bps of 2026 cuts pushed U.S. stocks higher and bolstered risk assets as Europe awaited inflation prints.
Markets Repriced Venezuela Oil Risk
January 5: U.S. capture and court appearance prompted oil-supply risk repricing, boosting energy and lifting U.S. stocks.
Rising long-term yields pressured growth
January 2: 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.88%, weighing on Nasdaq growth names while energy led gains and Chinese ADRs surged.
Record year-end repo tightening
December 31: SRF reached a record $74.6bn while counterparties placed $106bn into the RRP, tightening intraday liquidity and weighing on US equities.
Fed minutes prompt market repricing
December 30: Minutes showed narrow approval of a small easing and internal division, prompting repricing in Treasuries and fed funds futures.
Megacap profit-taking drags U.S. stocks
December 29: Profit-taking in megacap tech and thin year-end liquidity weighed on U.S. risk assets; dovish central bank comments lifted cyclicals.
Gold (XAUUSD)'s all-time high, markets mixed
December 26: Gold (XAUUSD)'s record boosted safe-haven demand; Asian equities closed higher while US indexes were mixed amid corporate and JGB liquidity data.
Ukraine debt settlement lifts markets
December 24: Ukraine's $2.6B debt settlement removed a contingent liability and supported modest positive moves; U.S. equities closed higher.
Global easing lifts risk assets
December 23: Major central-bank easing and RBI year-end liquidity measures drove lower yields and equity inflows as the S&P neared a record.
Tech-led U.S. rally amid Fed clarity
December 22: U.S. equities rallied on tech gains from Oracle (ORCL) and Nvidia (NVDA) and Miran's comment eased near-term Fed uncertainty.
Tech-led U.S. rally on deal and GPU wins
December 19: ByteDance-Oracle (ORCL) JV and CoreWeave's DOE partnership spurred rallies in Oracle and GPU-cloud names, lifting Nasdaq and tech sectors.
Micron-led chip rally
December 18: Micron's Q1 beat and guidance re-priced memory stocks, boosting US tech; ECB hold and the Bank of England cut split European markets.
Fed minutes split drove repricing
December 17: Fed minutes' split over 2026 cuts and Waller's gradual-easing remarks prompted repricing and pressured US equities and Treasuries.
Softer PMIs pressured global markets
December 16: S&P Global (SPGI) flash PMIs showed easing activity and rising cost pressures; Asian and European equities fell while US breadth was mixed.
Broadcom (AVGO) Warning Sparks Tech Pullback
December 15: Broadcom's (AVGO) margin warning triggered a tech-led selloff, pressuring AI/chip names and the Nasdaq; softer Chinese data dented Asian markets.
Credit tightening and SpaceX valuation
December 13: Credit spreads hit their lowest since 1998, lifting risk appetite, as SpaceX's $421 secondary forced reassessment of space comparables.
Broadcom (AVGO) margin warning slams AI stocks
December 12: Broadcom (AVGO) warned AI-system mix would compress near-term margins, triggering heavy selling in Broadcom and weighing on AI and chip stocks.
Fed Cut and T-bill Restart Drove Rally
December 11: Fed cut rates 25bp and resumed T-bill purchases, lowering short yields and lifting equities while AI profit-taking pressured tech.
Fed 25bp Cut Spurs Equity Rally
December 10: The Fed's 25bp cut and resumed T-bill purchases pushed short-term yields lower and lifted U.S. stocks.
US JOLTs show persistent labor tightness
December 9: US JOLTs rose to 7.67M, underscoring labor-market tightness and coinciding with mixed US equities as energy and semiconductors advanced.
Policy chatter and sector rotation
December 8: ECB comments on services inflation and social posts about Fed repurchases shifted flows and drove sector rotation, pressuring US equities.
Steady PCE, Michigan Print Tempered Bets
December 5: Core PCE and a firmer Michigan sentiment reduced near-term Fed-rate odds, prompting Treasury repricing and sector rotations.
Fed cut odds reshaped markets
December 4: A Reuters poll showing 82% expected a 25bp Fed cut lifted futures-implied easing odds and shifted positioning across rates and equities.
ADP Surprise Lifted U.S. Stocks
December 3: A surprise ADP payroll decline raised Fed-cut odds and, with semiconductor beats, lifted U.S. equities amid mixed global moves.
Euro HICP Rise; US Tech-Led Gains
December 2: Eurostat's flash HICP rose to 2.2%, reinforcing core services inflation and lifting short yields; US tech and industrials led equity gains.
Repriced Fed-cut odds dent equities
December 1: BofA research raised December cut odds, prompting traders to reprice short-term futures and weighing on US stocks.
Fed-cut odds lifted large-cap tech
November 28: Traders priced higher odds of a December Fed cut, lifting large-cap tech and chips amid thin, choppy trading after a CME data-center outage.
JPM Dec-cut call sparks risk-on rally
November 27: J.P. Morgan's shift to a December 25bp Fed cut tightened rate expectations, pressured short-dated yields and lifted Asian markets.
Equities Rally as Fed Cut Bets Rose
November 26: Bets on a December Fed rate cut rose after softer retail sales and mixed inflation, lifting US and European equities.
Alibaba Cloud Beat Lifted Tech
November 25: Alibaba’s strong cloud revenue growth reinforced the AI-driven tech momentum and supported gains across Asian markets, shaping sector leadership globally.
CPI Freeze Heightens Market Uncertainty
November 24: The BLS cancellation of October CPI and the delay of November CPI removed a key inflation datapoint, increasing uncertainty across rates-sensitive markets and influencing Treasury and equity positioning.
Dovish Fed Lifted US Stocks
November 21: Federal Reserve speakers were read as dovish, easing short-term rate expectations and lifting US benchmarks while Asian tech fell.
Nvidia (NVDA) beat and mixed jobs hit markets
November 20: Nvidia's (NVDA) strong Q3 and upbeat outlook lifted AI names, while a delayed mixed jobs report pushed yields lower and weighed on US indexes.
Dovish Fed Minutes and Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings
November 19: FOMC minutes showed support for further cuts, lowering Treasury yields and boosting long-dated bonds; Nvidia (NVDA) beat estimates.
NVDA hedging sparked tech selloff
November 18: Options-implied moves for NVDA had prompted elevated hedging, which pressured AI and semiconductor peers and pushed global benchmarks lower.
Fed slow-cut warning pressured markets
November 17: Jefferson's 'proceed slowly' remark tempered rapid-cut odds and lifted short- and medium-term yields, weighing on banks and growth stocks.
China slowdown hits Asian equities
November 16: China's October IP slowed to 4.9%, pressuring Asian equities; ECB supervisory comments and firmer US Treasury yields weighed on markets.
Fed caution trims near-term easing bets
November 13: Fed regional remarks reduced cut odds and pressured U.S. equities; ECB supervision comments and New York Fed MBS operations focused trading.
Funding lifts risk; chips whipsaw.
November 12: Progress toward a House funding bill pulled yields lower and buoyed risk, while SoftBank's Nvidia (NVDA) sale stirred chip volatility.
Tech rally on light macro, brisk deals.
November 11: A thin macro calendar saw Technology lead a broad US and global rally. Active deal news included S&P Global (SPGI)'s (SPGI) AIS acquisition.
Tech-led slide as Fed signals diverge.
November 7: US stocks fell as tech underperformed while energy and healthcare rose. Mixed Fed remarks tempered easing hopes, pressuring growth.