Lilly (LLY) beat and macro data split markets

February 4, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

5 min read

Lilly Q4 earnings beat and raised guidance boost healthcare sector performance

Key Points

Weaker ADP private payrolls and a modest ISM Services read prompted intra-session risk shifts that lowered Treasury yields and softened the dollar.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized inflation risks and said she would not support further rate cuts without clearer evidence of sustained disinflation, reinforcing a higher-for-longer narrative.
Eli Lilly's (LLY) Q4 results beat estimates and management raised 2026 revenue guidance, which drove gains in LLY and prompted sector reweighting versus Novo Nordisk.
Economic and corporate catalysts produced divergence across indexes: the Dow rose while the S&P and Nasdaq fell, and small-cap strength contrasted with Nasdaq weakness.

Global Market Summary

US markets closed mixed: the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 1.51% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.53%. European markets were mostly higher as the CAC 40 (FRA40) gained 1.01% and the FTSE 100 (UKX) rose 0.85%, while Germany's DAX (DAX) slipped 0.72%. In Asia, the Nikkei (NKY) eased 0.78% and the Hang Seng (HSI) was essentially flat, up 0.05%, as markets digested ADP and ISM releases, Fed Governor Cook's remarks and Eli Lilly's (LLY) earnings.

Top Movers

Top gainers: SLAB (+48.89%), ENPH (+38.60%), POWL (+16.34%), SMCI (+13.79%). Largest decliners: MRCY (-22.32%), LUMN (-21.63%), BSX (-17.59%), AMD (-17.29%). Sector leaders included Energy (XLE +2.25%) and Materials (XLB +2.35%), while Technology (VGT -1.99%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.74%) underperformed.

Macro highlights

ADP reported private payrolls rose by 22,000 in January, below expectations, and the ISM Services PMI printed 53.8, indicating modest expansion; the combined releases prompted intra-session risk shifts and contributed to lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar. Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized inflation risks and said she would not support further rate cuts without clearer evidence of sustained disinflation, reinforcing a higher-for-longer narrative and tempering cut expectations.

News that moved markets

Eli Lilly's (LLY) Q4 results beat estimates (revenue $19.29B, non-GAAP EPS $7.54) and management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $80.0-83.0 billion, driving gains in LLY and prompting sector reweighting versus rival Novo Nordisk (NVO), which issued a weaker outlook. Separately, ADP's weaker-than-expected private payrolls (+22,000) and the ISM Services PMI at 53.8 produced mixed trading—Russell 2000 strength versus Nasdaq weakness—and kept focus on upcoming official jobs data. Several transactions closed on Feb. 4, including Columbus McKinnon completing its acquisition of Kito Crosby and Thoma Bravo completing its acquisition of Dayforce, alongside multiple industrial and services add-ons. Announced deals included Texas Instruments' (TXN) plan to acquire Silicon Labs and Goldenstone Acquisition Limited (GDST) announcing intent to merge with Deluxe Technology Group targeting a NASDAQ listing.

Upcoming session watchlist

AU Balance of Trade (DEC) — forecast A$ 4.9B vs A$2.936B prior, Feb 05, 12:30 AM | Indicates external demand strength and net exports contribution to growth.
GB BoE Interest Rate Decision — consensus 3.75% vs 3.75% prior, Feb 05, 12:00 PM | Signals monetary policy stance and affects borrowing costs and financial conditions.
EA Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2% vs 2% prior, Feb 05, 01:15 PM | Sets policy floor for money-market rates and guides financial conditions.
EA ECB Press Conference, Feb 05, 01:45 PM | Offers policy guidance and context on economic outlook and inflation.
US JOLTs Job Openings (DEC) — consensus 7.2M vs 7.146M prior, Feb 05, 03:00 PM | Gauges labor demand, informing wage pressure and hiring momentum.

Key Takeaways

US equity performance diverged: the Dow advanced while the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq declined, reflecting sector rotation, tech weakness and stock-specific moves.
ADP and ISM releases, together with Fed Governor Cook's comments, produced mixed trading and contributed to lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar.
Eli Lilly's (LLY) beat and raised guidance lifted its shares and prompted sector reweighting, widening performance gaps within healthcare.
Deal activity closed and was announced across industrials and technology, including Columbus McKinnon, Thoma Bravo and a planned TI acquisition of Silicon Labs, supporting select stock moves.