RBA Hike Weighed on Risk Appetite
February 3, 2026 at 21:00 UTC
Key Points
- RBA's decision to raise rates to 3.85% has drawn market attention and has contributed to cautious positioning into the close.
- ADM's mixed Q4 results - EPS beat but revenue missed - prompted divergent intraday moves and increased volatility in agribusiness and food-staples names.
- Energy and Basic Materials led gains while Technology and Communication Services lagged, which has accentuated sector dispersion as US risk appetite softened.
Global Market Summary
US equities closed lower, with the S&P 500 (SPX) down 0.99% and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) off 1.67%, while the Dow (DJIA) slipped 0.42% as risk appetite softened. Asian markets were stronger led by the Nikkei (NKY) which rose 3.92%, Shanghai (000001.SS) +1.29% and Hong Kong (HSI) +0.22%. European indices were largely flat to slightly lower: the FTSE (UKX) -0.26%, the CAC (FRA40) -0.02% and the DAX (DAX) -0.07%.
Top Movers
Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.23%) and Basic Materials (XLB +2.08%) led gains; Utilities (XLU +1.27%) and Consumer Staples (XLP +1.59%) also outperformed, while Technology (VGT -2.58%) and Communication Services (XLC -1.70%) were weakest. Top gainers: DVA (+19.54%), ALM (+18.85%), HYMC (+16.50%), USAR (+16.40%), UUUU (+15.94%). Top losers: CRVL (-25.78%), IT (-22.74%), PYPL (-19.79%), NIQ (-19.19%), GLXY (-18.49%).
Macro highlights
The Reserve Bank of Australia decision printed at 3.85% (previous 3.6%), a high-importance item on the calendar that drew market attention. US JOLTs job openings for December remained awaited (consensus 7.2M, prior 7.146M) and preliminary January inflation readings for France were flagged on the schedule; together these data points contributed to cautious positioning into the close.
News that moved markets
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.87, above cited estimates, while revenue missed at $18.56 billion versus near-$21 billion expectations; management provided FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.60–$4.25, outlined $1.3–$1.5 billion of capex and a $500–$750 million cost-savings plan. The mixed print prompted divergent intraday moves in ADM shares and increased volatility in agribusiness and food-staples names. Several completed transactions closed, including Ovintiv's closing of the NuVista Energy acquisition and Excelitas' closing of its Luxium Solutions acquisition, alongside MiddleGround Capital's add-on acquisition of Pi Innovo and MPE Partners' completed sale of 80/20 to Littlejohn & Co. Announced transactions included Arax Investment Partners' $1.5 billion acquisition of GFP Private Wealth and Medtronic's announced intent to acquire CathWorks.
Upcoming session watchlist
- US ISM Services PMI (JAN) — consensus 53.8 vs 54.4 prior, Feb 04, 03:00 PM | Gauges services activity and demand momentum for near-term growth.
- EA Inflation Rate YoY Flash (JAN) — forecast 2.0% vs 1.9% prior, Feb 04, 10:00 AM | Signals near-term inflation trend across the euro area.
- IT Inflation Rate YoY Prel (JAN) — consensus 1% vs 1.2% prior, Feb 04, 10:00 AM | Indicates annual inflation trend and consumer price pressures in Italy.
Key Takeaways
- US equities closed lower as risk appetite softened, with the S&P and Nasdaq posting the largest declines and the Dow slipping into the close.
- Strong Nikkei gains pushed Asian markets higher, while European indices finished largely flat to slightly lower.
- Several corporate transactions closed or were announced, and ADM's mixed earnings print drove divergent moves and raised volatility in agribusiness and food-staples.
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