Jobless claims fall, risk assets retreat

February 19, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

5 min read

US jobless claims fall chart with dollar strength and equities decline, Fed policy impact

Key Points

Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, reinforcing a higher-for-longer Fed outlook and supporting the dollar while pressuring equities.
U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion as imports surged and exports fell, which boosted interest in energy and industrial sectors.
Sector flows saw utilities and energy outperform while financials and consumer discretionary lagged, reflecting risk-off rotation.
Walmart's modest Q4 beat and cautious FY27 guidance plus a $30 billion repurchase authorization prompted mixed trading in retail names.

Global Market Summary

U.S. equities closed lower as the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.42% after stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims reinforced a higher-for-longer Fed outlook and weighed on risk assets. European benchmarks slipped, with the CAC 40 (FRA40) down 0.36%, the FTSE 100 (UKX) down 0.55% and the DAX (DAX) down 0.93%, while Japan's Nikkei (NKY) rose 0.57% as mixed U.S. macro and a wider trade deficit prompted risk-off flows.

Top Movers

Top sector performers included utilities (XLU +1.06%) and energy (XLE +0.76%), while financials (XLF -0.96%) and consumer discretionary (XLY -0.78%) underperformed. Single-stock winners included RELY (+26.19%), HLF (+18.86%) and COLD (+15.83%). Notable decliners included KLAR (-27.41%), CAR (-22.96%) and EPAM (-16.89%).

Macro highlights

U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, well below consensus, reinforcing a tight labor market and reducing near-term odds of Fed rate cuts, which supported the dollar (DXY) and pressured equities. Separately, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December as imports surged and exports fell, a surprise that could trim GDP estimates and boosted interest in commodity-linked sectors such as energy and industrials.

News that moved markets

Walmart (WMT) reported a modest Q4 beat (adjusted EPS $0.74) but issued cautious FY27 guidance and authorized a $30 billion share repurchase, prompting mixed trading in retail names as investors weighed the beat against the muted outlook. Perrigo (PRGO) approved a quarterly $0.29 dividend, Shore Bancshares (SHBI) extended its exchange offer for subordinated notes, and Nauticus Robotics (KITT) announced leadership hires and an Aquanaut manufacturing expansion, each driving targeted flows in the respective securities. Petrus Resources closed its previously announced Deep Basin acquisition and related equity financings. Announced transactions included Generac's agreement to acquire Enercon and SUSE's acquisition of Losant, both presented as strategic expansions in data-center/switchgear and industrial IoT markets.

Upcoming session watchlist

US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q4) — consensus 3% vs 4.4% prior, Feb 20, 01:30 PM | Tracks overall economic growth momentum and demand strength.
US Core PCE Price Index MoM (DEC) — consensus 0.4% vs 0.2% prior, Feb 20, 01:30 PM | Indicates underlying inflation momentum in consumer prices and pressures.
US Personal Income MoM (DEC) — vs 0.3% prior, Feb 20, 01:30 PM | Shows income growth that supports future consumer spending capacity.
US Personal Spending MoM (DEC) — vs 0.5% prior, Feb 20, 01:30 PM | Gauges consumer outlays and near-term demand trend strength.
DE HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (FEB) — consensus 49.6 vs 49.1 prior, Feb 20, 08:30 AM | Provides early gauge of factory activity and demand conditions.
GB S&P Global Services PMI Flash (FEB) — forecast 51.6 vs 54.0 prior, Feb 20, 09:30 AM | Offers timely read on services demand and business conditions.

Key Takeaways

Initial jobless claims surprise reinforced a higher-for-longer Fed and lifted the dollar, which pressured U.S. equities including the Nasdaq.
The widened U.S. trade deficit as imports surged and exports fell boosted interest in energy and industrial names and supported those sectors.
Utilities and energy outperformed while financials and consumer discretionary lagged, reflecting rotation into defensive and commodity-linked sectors.
Company-level news and deals produced targeted flows, with Walmart's mixed print and repurchase, acquisitions and operational updates moving specific names.