Christmas Eve early close shapes U.S. markets
Key Points
- U.S. stocks head into Dec. 24 with an early 1 p.m. ET close and thin holiday liquidity
- Major indices sit near record highs after a 4.3% Q3 GDP print and softer consumer confidence
- Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET are the key macro release before Wednesday’s open
- Stock- and sector-specific stories range from record metals and AI demand to drug-pricing shifts
Holiday-shortened session to test market liquidity
U.S. equity markets will operate on an abbreviated schedule on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to close at 1:00 p.m. ET and eligible options trading until 1:15 p.m. ET. Bond markets are also expected to shut early, with SIFMA recommending a 2:00 p.m. ET close. Exchanges have reiterated that they will follow their published calendars despite federal office closures, and markets will be closed on Christmas Day before reopening for a full session on December 26. Across multiple reports, participants highlighted that trading volumes have already thinned into the holiday week, a pattern that can widen bid–ask spreads and make price moves look more dramatic than the underlying news. Several articles stressed that in such conditions, relatively small orders, ETF flows, or headline-driven bursts of activity can move prices more than usual, particularly in the first hour after the open and into the compressed final hour before the early close.
Macro backdrop: strong growth, weaker confidence, and key data ahead
The shortened Christmas Eve session follows a broadly constructive day for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 closed at a record 6,909.79, with the Dow and Nasdaq also higher, as investors digested a stronger-than-expected 4.3% annualized reading for third-quarter U.S. GDP. Reporting linked the advance to robust consumer spending and exports, while also noting that traders continue to price in Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, even as the odds of an earlier move have eased. At the same time, sentiment indicators have softened. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 89.1 in December, below economist expectations, with households citing concerns about jobs, income, inflation, tariffs and policy uncertainty. Durable goods orders for October declined 2.2%, though core capital goods orders rose 0.5%, suggesting some resilience in business investment. For Wednesday, the main scheduled U.S. release is Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, shifted from the usual Thursday slot because of the holiday. Market calendars and commentary emphasize that, in a low-volume environment, even a routine surprise in claims can quickly influence Treasury yields, the dollar, index futures and sector leadership.
Commodities and cyclicals: record metals and energy dynamics
Commodity-linked names are heading into the early close with notable price and fundamental cross-currents. Freeport-McMoRan rallied to a new 52-week high as copper prices pushed above $12,000 per tonne to record levels, driven by supply worries, tariff-related uncertainty, mine disruptions and support measures in China. Coverage noted that copper is on track for its strongest annual gain since 2009, a backdrop that has sharpened focus on Freeport’s leverage to prices, its Grasberg restart plans and its base-plus-variable dividend framework. In precious metals, gold futures traded above $4,500 an ounce, extending an all-time-high run supported by expectations of Fed easing, a softer U.S. dollar and safe-haven demand. Newmont shares sit near the top of their 52-week range as investors weigh record bullion prices against cost discipline and restructuring following the Newcrest acquisition. In energy, Exxon Mobil trades just below its 52-week high around $120, supported by a corporate plan that targets $25 billion of earnings growth and $35 billion of cash flow growth by 2030 at constant prices, alongside sustained buybacks and a long dividend track record. Oil prices have been influenced by supply-risk headlines involving Venezuela and Russia, as well as forecasts from banks and agencies that point to potential surpluses and lower average prices in 2026, leaving integrated majors sensitive to both spot moves and longer-term assumptions.
AI and infrastructure: semiconductors, storage and industrial power
AI-related infrastructure remains a central theme across technology and industrial names. Semiconductor equipment maker KLA is trading near its 52-week high, with options data showing elevated put activity that some observers interpret as hedging after a strong run. Consensus analyst targets cluster around the low-$1,300s, with several recent upgrades citing exposure to leading-edge nodes and AI-driven spending. Applied Materials also sits within single-digit percentage points of its peak, as investors balance a stronger memory and packaging cycle and industry forecasts for rising wafer-fab equipment sales against export-control headwinds and valuation concerns after a sharp advance. In data storage, Seagate Technology and Western Digital have both joined the Nasdaq-100, a change expected to influence passive flows. Seagate has raised its dividend and reported record gross margins and free cash flow on the back of high-capacity HAMR-based drives qualified at major cloud customers, while Western Digital’s HDD-focused profile is tied to nearline demand, long lead times and multi-year purchase visibility from hyperscalers. On the industrial side, Caterpillar’s 2025 performance has been underpinned by demand for power-generation equipment serving AI data centers, even as tariffs remain a significant cost headwind. Recent product updates and the pending acquisition of mining software firm RPMGlobal highlight Caterpillar’s efforts to deepen its technology and services mix alongside traditional machinery.
Financials near highs as deal and rate narratives evolve
Large financial institutions enter the Christmas Eve session near the upper ends of their annual ranges. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase both recently set or approached 52-week highs, supported by a rebound in M&A and capital markets activity, as well as expectations for non-recessionary rate cuts in 2026. Goldman has announced plans to expand mid-cap deal investing in Japan by about ¥800 billion over the next decade and agreed to acquire Innovator Capital Management, a defined-outcome ETF provider managing roughly $28 billion, in a transaction valued around $2 billion. Its research arm is projecting above-consensus global and U.S. growth for 2026 while warning that elevated valuations could increase volatility. JPMorgan’s stock has been buoyed by its role as a bellwether bank and by reports that it is evaluating potential crypto trading services for institutional clients, alongside ongoing legal and regulatory matters. Citigroup has also broken to a new 52-week high after a series of gains, with investors watching progress on risk-control upgrades and regulatory orders. Across the group, consensus price targets often sit close to or below current prices, reflecting how far shares have already run and underscoring the importance of upcoming January earnings reports for confirming trends in net interest income, credit quality and fee pipelines.
Healthcare and consumer names face policy and demand crosswinds
In healthcare, large drugmakers and device companies are navigating both company-specific developments and a shifting U.S. policy environment. Gilead Sciences has exercised an option to license Assembly Biosciences’ herpes simplex virus helicase-primase inhibitor programs, adding HSV candidates ABI-1179 and ABI-5366 to its antiviral pipeline, and is preparing for a high-profile presentation at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 12, 2026. Gilead and other major pharmaceutical firms have also entered three-year agreements with the U.S. administration that combine substantial price cuts, direct-to-consumer channels via TrumpRx.gov and temporary tariff relief, with Gilead committing to discounts on selected HIV, hepatitis and COVID-19 medicines and parity pricing for future launches. AbbVie is trading near the upper half of its 52-week range after modest gains, as investors weigh its post-Humira transition, a strategy to expand beyond Botox with next-generation neurotoxins, and ongoing discussions over drug-pricing frameworks. In consumer staples, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble are little changed after hours, with both seen as defensive holdings that can lag on risk-on days. Coca-Cola’s upcoming CEO transition and portfolio questions around Costa Coffee remain in focus, while P&G is addressing a Texas agreement to modify Crest toothpaste advertising to depict age-appropriate usage amid broader scrutiny of kids’ fluoride messaging. McDonald’s and PepsiCo, by contrast, have recently underperformed on strong index days, reflecting concerns about consumer confidence, valuation and, in PepsiCo’s case, execution of an activist-influenced productivity and portfolio reset.
Key Takeaways
- The Dec. 24 session is structurally different: a 1 p.m. ET close and already thin volumes mean liquidity, not just fundamentals, will shape intraday moves.
- Macro signals are mixed—Q3 GDP and equity indices are strong, but consumer confidence has weakened—leaving rate expectations and sector leadership sensitive to incoming data.
- Commodity and AI-linked themes remain dominant, with record copper and gold prices and heavy investment in data-center power, chips and storage driving both upside and valuation risk.
- Large banks and energy majors are trading near highs with long-term capital-return and growth plans in place, but many consensus price targets now sit close to spot, raising the bar for 2026 earnings.
- Policy and regulatory developments—from U.S. drug-pricing agreements to advertising settlements and export controls—are increasingly important drivers for healthcare, consumer and semiconductor names.
References
- 1. https://ts2.tech/en/coca-cola-ko-stock-after-hours-on-dec-23-2025-shares-hover-near-70-what-to-know-before-the-market-opens-dec-24/
- 2. https://ts2.tech/en/american-express-axp-stock-after-hours-on-dec-23-2025-after-bell-pop-key-headlines-and-what-to-watch-before-the-dec-24-open/
- 3. https://ts2.tech/en/kla-stock-klac-after-hours-what-happened-after-the-dec-23-2025-close-and-what-to-watch-before-the-market-opens-dec-24/
- 4. https://ts2.tech/en/autozone-stock-azo-after-hours-today-dec-23-2025-key-news-analyst-forecasts-and-what-to-watch-before-the-market-opens-wednesday/
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