Growth and Inflation Repricing

March 13, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

3 min read

Chart showing GDP and PCE revisions by BEA impacting global equities and real yields

Key Points

BEA's Q4 GDP downward revision and updated PCE measures prompted re-pricing of growth and policy expectations.
The revisions drove intraday moves in U.S. rates, the dollar and risk assets, and contributed to lower real yields.
UK monthly GDP was flat and three-month growth showed soft momentum, which reduced immediate scope for further BoE tightening and pressured sterling and gilts.
JOLTS job openings were little changed, providing a broadly neutral labour signal for rate expectations.

Global Market Summary

Major equity indexes closed lower as growth and inflation updates prompted risk repricing. US benchmarks fell with SPX down 0.61%, ^IXIC down 0.93% and DJIA down 0.26%. European markets slipped with FRA40 -0.91%, DAX -0.60% and UKX -0.43%, while Asian equities were softer with NKY -1.16%, HSI -0.98% and 000001.SS -0.82%.

Top Movers

Sectors: Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and energy (XLE +0.33%) outperformed while technology (VGT -0.86%) and materials (XLB -0.99%) lagged. Top gainers included NP (+20.23%), PED (+17.29%) and VEON (+14.20%). Notable losers were ULTA (-14.24%), MEOH (-10.87%) and CACC (-9.35%).

Macro highlights

The BEA's second estimate revised U.S. Q4 2025 GDP to a 0.7% annualized rate and showed January PCE at 2.8% y/y with core PCE 3.1%, prompting re‐pricing of growth and policy expectations and contributing to lower real yields and a softer dollar. UK ONS monthly GDP was flat in January with three‐month growth of 0.2%, a profile described as soft momentum that reduced immediate scope for further Bank of England tightening and pressured sterling and gilts. BLS JOLTS showed job openings little changed at 6.9 million in January, a stable labour signal that was broadly neutral for rate expectations.

News that moved markets

BEA's downward revision to Q4 2025 GDP and updated price measures altered the growth/inflation narrative and drove intraday moves in U.S. rates, the dollar and risk assets. Carvana's board approved a 5-for-1 forward stock split pending shareholder approval, a corporate action flagged as likely to boost retail interest and liquidity in CVNA. Volatus Aerospace completed the acquisition of 100% ownership of Synergy Aviation. Announced transactions included Ramp's acquisition of Billhop, Hale Capital Partners' purchase of APEX Analytics and Sciens Building Solutions' acquisition of Ninth Florida Company.

Upcoming session watchlist

China Retail Sales YoY (JAN-FEB) — consensus 2.5% vs 0.9% prior | Tracks year-over-year retail spending, signaling domestic demand strength across Jan–Feb.
China Industrial Production YoY (JAN-FEB) — consensus 5.1% vs 5.2% prior | Measures year-over-year industrial output, indicating manufacturing activity momentum in Jan–Feb.
Canada Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) — forecast 2.1% vs 2.3% prior | Shows year-over-year consumer price inflation trend for February versus prior reading.

Key Takeaways

Major equity indexes closed lower as growth and inflation updates prompted risk repricing across U.S., European and Asian markets.
Utilities and energy outperformed while technology and materials underperformed.
Real yields fell and the dollar softened following the BEA revisions and PCE updates.
Carvana's board approved a 5-for-1 forward split pending shareholder approval, flagged as likely to boost retail interest and liquidity in CVNA.