ISM and ADP drove US equity rally

March 4, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

4 min read

US and European equities rally visualization with ISM Services and ADP data impact

Key Points

ISM Services PMI accelerated to 56.1, which put upward pressure on bond yields and tempered near-term Fed-cut expectations.
ADP reported private payrolls +63,000 and job-stayer pay +4.5%, reinforcing resilient labor demand and supporting risk-on flows.
U.S. equities rallied and European markets followed as ISM/ADP signals fueled gains; Asian bourses lagged after mixed regional data.
Technology and consumer cyclicals led sector gains while defensive staples and energy lagged; several individual names posted double-digit moves.

Global Market Summary

U.S. equities rallied after stronger services and payroll signals: the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.78%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) gained 1.29% and the Dow (DJIA) added 0.49% as ISM Services PMI and ADP prints reinforced resilient demand. European markets followed, with the DAX (DAX) up 1.74%, the CAC (FRA40) up 0.79% and the FTSE (UKX) up 0.80% on similar risk-on flows. Asian bourses lagged after mixed regional data: the Nikkei (NKY) fell 3.61%, the Hang Seng (HSI) dropped 2.01% and the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) slipped 0.98% amid divergent PMI and confidence updates.

Top Movers

Technology and consumer cyclicals led sector gains: VGT (+1.33%) and XLY (+1.74%) outperformed, while defensive XLP (-0.64%) and energy XLE (-0.60%) lagged. Top individual movers included STVN (+18.81%), GLXY (+17.70%) and MRNA (+16.05%). Notable decliners were IBRX (-10.10%), EMAT (-7.65%) and FROG (-7.22%).

Macro highlights

The ISM Services PMI accelerated to 56.1 in February and ADP reported private payrolls +63,000 with job-stayer pay +4.5%, a combination that put upward pressure on bond yields and tempered near-term Fed-cut expectations. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book described modest-to-moderate activity with moderate input-driven price pressures, reinforcing a cautious policy backdrop for rates.

News that moved markets

Bath & Body Works (BBWI) reported a Q4 beat but issued conservative fiscal-2026 guidance and paused buybacks, a mix that may weigh on near-term top-line momentum and capital allocation. indie Semiconductor (INDI) priced $150m of 4.00% convertible notes due 2031 with an implied conversion price near $3.87, a structure cited as likely to generate hedging flows and elevate share volatility ahead of settlement. Brown-Forman (BFA/BFB) reaffirmed its full-year outlook, completed a $400m repurchase program and declared a regular dividend, supporting demand in the spirits sector.

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Key Takeaways

S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.78%, Nasdaq gained 1.29%, and the Dow added 0.49% after ISM and ADP prints.
DAX rose 1.74%, CAC 0.79% and FTSE 0.80% as European markets followed US risk-on flows.
Nikkei fell 3.61%, Hang Seng dropped 2.01% and Shanghai Composite slipped 0.98% as Asian bourses lagged.
Technology and consumer cyclicals outperformed while defensive staples and energy underperformed; several stocks posted double-digit moves.