Japan GDP revision, oil unwind

March 10, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

4 min read

Nikkei index chart rising with Japan GDP revision and Brent, WTI oil price drop visualization

Key Points

Japan revised Q4 2025 GDP to an annualized 1.3% from 0.2%, which supported the Nikkei (NKY) and narrowed USD/JPY ranges.
U.S. president comments and G7/IEA actions triggered a rapid unwind in oil risk premia, causing Brent and WTI to retrace roughly 9-10% intraday.
China's customs data showed roughly 18.3% Jan–Feb trade expansion, bolstering Asian risk sentiment and the renminbi.
Oracle (ORCL) beat Q3 FY2026 estimates, raised FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion and disclosed financing actions, lifting shares and cloud/AI peers.

Global Market Summary

Asian equities led gains: NKY climbed 2.88% after Japan revised Q4 GDP sharply higher, HSI gained 2.17% and 000001.SS rose 0.65%. European markets outperformed with DAX up 2.39% and FRA40 up 1.79% as oil risk eased, while U.S. benchmarks were mixed, with SPX down 0.21% and DJIA down 0.07% amid commodity-driven volatility.

Top Movers

Notable gainers: FIGR (+21.29%), NIO (+15.08%) and AXTI (+14.89%). Largest decliners: GSIW (-18.49%), BNTX (-17.88%) and CNC (-15.97%). Sector snapshot: energy ETF XLE (-1.28%), financials XLF (-0.54%) and healthcare XLV (-0.72%); tech ETF VGT was near flat (+0.02%).

Macro highlights

Japan revised Q4 2025 GDP to an annualized 1.3% from 0.2%, led by stronger business investment, which supported the Nikkei (NKY) and narrowed USD/JPY ranges. China’s customs data showed a roughly 18.3% Jan–Feb trade expansion, bolstering Asian risk sentiment and the renminbi. In Europe, a surprise €21.2B German trade surplus was offset by a sharp 11.1% plunge in factory orders, leaving mixed signals for euro-area industrial momentum.

News that moved markets

Oracle (ORCL) beat Q3 FY2026 estimates, raised FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion and disclosed financing actions; the results lifted Oracle (ORCL) shares about 6-7% in extended trading and strengthened positioning for cloud and AI infrastructure peers. Comments from the U.S. president and G7/IEA actions triggered a rapid unwind in oil risk premia, with Brent (BZ=F) and WTI (USOIL) retracing roughly 9-10% intraday, easing safe-haven flows and helping equities recover amid extreme intraday volatility. Monroe Capital Corporation completed an increase to its special pre-merger closing distribution, bringing the total pre-merger closing distribution to $15.9 million (approximately $0.75 per share). Separately, announced transactions included Veeva's acquisition of Ostro and Elsevier's definitive agreement to acquire Mytonomy to expand patient-engagement capabilities.

Upcoming session watchlist

US Inflation Rate MoM (FEB) — consensus 0.3% vs 0.2% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Measures monthly change in consumer prices, informing near-term inflation momentum.
US Core Inflation Rate MoM (FEB) — consensus 0.2% vs 0.3% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Gauges underlying monthly inflation trend and short-term price pressures.
US Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) — consensus 2.4% vs 2.4% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Shows annual pace of consumer price inflation relative to the prior year.
US Core Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) — consensus 2.5% vs 2.5% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Signals trend in core prices over the past year.

Key Takeaways

Asian equities led gains as Japan's GDP revision and China's trade data lifted risk sentiment; Nikkei (NKY), Hang Seng and Shanghai closed higher.
Oil risk unwind drove a steep intraday decline in Brent and WTI, easing safe-haven flows and helping European markets outperform during heightened volatility.
Sector and stock moves were mixed: FIGR, NIO and AXTI led gains while GSIW, BNTX and CNC posted the largest declines; XLE and XLV lagged.
Oracle's beat and guidance lifted its shares and supported cloud and AI infrastructure peers; Monroe's pre-merger distribution and announced transactions added deal-related activity.