US-Iran Ceasefire Fuels Risk-On Rally

April 8, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

4 min read

Chart showing crude oil drop and US, European equity rally after Trump two-week ceasefire news

Key Points

President Trump's conditional two-week ceasefire sent Brent and WTI sharply lower, removing a geopolitical premium and triggering a broad risk-on rally.
The crude decline supported cyclicals and travel names, while pressure on oil weighed on energy stocks.
Industrials, Materials and Technology led sector gains while Energy underperformed.
Major central banks held policy rates, prompting government bond rallies and gains in bank-heavy Indian equities; FOMC Minutes were the US calendar focal point.

Global Market Summary

U.S. benchmarks rallied after geopolitical headlines: the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 2.51%, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 2.80% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) advanced 2.85%. European markets also jumped with the CAC 40 (FRA40) up 4.49%, the DAX (DAX) up 5.06% and the FTSE 100 (UKX) up 2.51%, while 000001.SS was flat (0.0%). The move followed reports of a US‐Iran conditional two‐week ceasefire and a sharp drop in crude that removed part of the geopolitical premium, supporting cyclicals and travel names and pressuring energy stocks.

Top Movers

Sector leaders: Industrials (XLI +3.75%), Materials (XLB +3.33%) and Technology (VGT +2.87%) led gains; Energy (XLE -3.51%) lagged. Notable winners: AXTI (+16.98%), HUT (+16.65%), RIOT (+13.53%). Largest decliners: APA (-9.80%), VG (-9.69%), MUR (-8.52%).

Macro highlights

FOMC Minutes (06:00 PM) were the US calendar focal point ahead of policy deliberations. Major central banks held policy rates: the RBI left the repo at 5.25% and retained a neutral stance, prompting a rally in government bonds and gains in bank‐heavy Indian equities, while Kenya's MPC held the CBR at 8.75% and the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25%. Separately, reports of a US‐Iran conditional two‐week ceasefire sent crude sharply lower, which pushed yields down and helped fuel the broad risk‐on move that lifted cyclicals.

News that moved markets

President Donald Trump's announcement of a conditional two‐week ceasefire with Iran drove a steep drop in Brent and WTI futures (BZ=F, USOIL) and triggered a broad risk‐on rally across US and European equities. Moody's moved the outlook on Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. (OWL) to negative after elevated redemption requests, increasing scrutiny on retail private‐credit vehicles and potential mark‐to‐market volatility. Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported Q1 results that beat estimates and maintained guidance despite higher fuel costs, which lifted airline peers and supported travel stocks in the session. Littlejohn Capital completed the sale of Maysteel Industries, and Landis+Gyr completed the divestiture of its EMEA business. Among announced transactions, AVISTA HEALTHCARE PARTNERS agreed to acquire Bentec Medical.

Upcoming session watchlist

US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final (Q4) — consensus 0.7% vs 4.4% prior | Final reading on quarterly growth momentum and overall economic output.
US Personal Spending MoM (Feb) — consensus 0.5% vs 0.4% prior | Measures consumer demand strength and near-term GDP contribution.
US Personal Income MoM (Feb) — consensus 0.3% vs 0.4% prior | Tracks household income growth that supports future consumption.
US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Feb) — vs 0.4% prior | Key gauge of underlying inflation pressure in consumer prices.
Germany Balance of Trade (Feb) — forecast €19.1B vs €21.2B prior | Shows export performance and external demand's contribution to growth.
Japan Consumer Confidence (Mar) — forecast 38 vs 40.0 prior | Early indicator of household sentiment toward income and spending plans.

Key Takeaways

US and European equities rallied broadly after reports of a conditional ceasefire and a steep drop in crude.
Cyclicals and travel stocks benefited from lower oil prices, while energy names led sector declines.
Industrials, Materials and Technology were session leaders; Energy was the largest sector laggard.
Moody's moved Blue Owl Credit Income Corp.'s outlook to negative after elevated redemptions; Delta's Q1 beat and maintained guidance boosted airline peers.