Corn jumps as USDA cuts U.S. yield, stocks

Corn futures surge on lower U.S. yield and stocks

U.S. corn futures climbed sharply after the latest federal crop update cut expectations for the 2026‑27 harvest and tightened domestic supplies. At 11:20 a.m. CT on November 10, corn futures were 11 to 13 cents higher, while soybeans were 33 to 35 cents higher, wheat was 5 to 6 cents higher and cotton was 10 to 20 points lower.

The rally followed a reduction in the national average corn yield to 179.6 bushels per acre for 2026‑27, which lowered U.S. corn production to 15.893 billion bushels. The smaller crop and adjusted demand outlook brought 2026‑27 corn ending stocks down to 1.758 billion bushels, and the projected farmgate corn price was set at $4.60 per bushel.

Details of the corn balance sheet shift

The U.S. corn production cut of 141 million bushels came entirely from yield, with harvested area held at 88.5 million acres.

On the demand side, feed and residual use for corn was trimmed to 5.975 billion bushels and exports to 3.275 billion bushels, while food, seed and industrial use was left at 7.005 billion bushels, including 5.65 billion bushels for ethanol. The tighter U.S. balance contrasts with a lower season‑average price forecast of $4.60, down 10 cents from the previous month.

Regionally, yield estimates were reduced in several key corn states, including Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska and North Dakota, and raised in Minnesota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, while yields in Iowa and Ohio were unchanged. U.S. average on‑farm cash corn price for 2026‑27 was also put at $4.60 per bushel.

Soybean outlook firms with higher yield and strong demand

Soybean projections moved in the opposite direction on yield but still pointed to a tighter domestic balance. The national soybean yield for 2026‑27 was raised to 53.3 bushels per acre, lifting production to 4.574 billion bushels.

Domestic ending stocks were estimated at 300 million bushels, and the national average farmgate soybean price was projected at $12.10 per bushel, 10 cents higher than a month earlier.

U.S. soybean ending stocks were reduced from last month, reflecting higher exports and firm crush demand.

Global grain picture and other crop adjustments

Globally, 2026‑27 corn beginning stocks were set at 308.31 million metric tons, with world ending stocks at 281.94 million metric tons. Larger corn crops in Brazil, at 141 million metric tons, and Argentina, at 57 million metric tons, offset reductions in the United States, South Africa and the European Union.

These figures framed a global oilseed outlook that remained relatively comfortable despite tighter U.S. inventories.

Wheat and cotton see smaller but notable changes

Wheat (W1) adjustments were more modest. U.S. wheat (W1) production was held at 1.534 billion bushels, exports at 750 million bushels and ending stocks at 743 million bushels, with the projected farmgate wheat price cut to $6.20 per bushel.

Cotton projections turned lower. U.S. cotton production was reduced to 13.175 million bales as the average yield was trimmed to 775 pounds per acre. Ending stocks were cut by 100,000 bales to 3.7 million, and the season‑average cotton price forecast was nudged down to 76 cents per pound, while cotton futures traded 10 to 20 points lower after the report.