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Gulf oil exports ease from post-war highs

NEWS

November 3, 2026 at 16:22 UTC

3 min read
Crude oil tanker in a narrow strait, reflecting easing Gulf oil exports and shifting shipping flows

Key Points

  • 01Gulf oil exports averaged 17.1 million bpd in October, down from 18.9 million bpd in September
  • 02October flows are about three-quarters of pre-war Gulf export levels
  • 03Crude shipments recovered faster than refined products, which remain just over half of normal volumes
  • 04Record security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted tracking and may lead to upward data revisions

Gulf exports slip from September peak

Gulf oil exports declined in October 2026 from September’s post-Iran war high, according to Vortexa.

Crude and condensate exports averaged 14.0 million barrels per day in October, about 86% of pre-war volumes. Refined product exports were much weaker at 3.1 million barrels per day, just over half of normal levels. This indicates that crude exports have been recovering faster than product shipments across the Gulf.

Heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz

The October slowdown comes against a backdrop of intensifying attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, which reached a record level in October. Heightened security risks in this key chokepoint have weighed on Middle East seaborne oil exports. Tankers transiting the area have increasingly adopted measures to avoid detection.

Many shuttle tankers passing through the Strait have begun switching off their tracking signals as a safety measure. Vortexa said satellite imagery is often needed to confirm shipments. Vortexa said this creates a reporting lag.

Data uncertainty and likely revisions

Vortexa said the October export figure of 17.1 million barrels per day is more likely to be revised up than down as additional shipment information is incorporated. Crude and condensate flow estimates from another tracking firm also show a drop of about 1 million barrels per day from September, with the same caveat of potential upward revision.

Vortexa sharply revised up the September figure after more information on tankers became available. A similar pattern is expected for October, given the number of vessels that temporarily go dark while navigating high-risk waters.

Country-level export patterns

Country detail for October points to uneven adjustments across the Gulf. Saudi Arabia’s exports were steady compared with September, maintaining their output levels even as regional shipping conditions deteriorated. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates recorded the largest decline in exports among the tracked producers.

Iraq, Oman and Kuwait all exported less oil in October than in the previous month. The aggregated country flows are consistent with the broader regional decrease from September’s 18.9 million barrels per day to 17.1 million barrels per day. All these figures exclude Iran, which is not exporting because of the US blockade.

Key Takeaways

  • 01Gulf oil exports eased in October but remain relatively high, at about three-quarters of pre-war levels, underscoring continued supply despite security tensions.
  • 02Crude and condensate exports have rebounded more strongly than refined products, highlighting an uneven recovery across different segments of the oil trade.
  • 03Data on October shipments are subject to upward revision because security-driven tracking gaps require post-hoc confirmation via satellite imagery.
  • 04Country-level trends show stable Saudi exports alongside notable declines from the UAE, Iraq, Oman and Kuwait, shaping the overall regional downturn in flows.

References

  1. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gulf-oil-flows-dip-in-october-from-postiran-war-high-data-shows-4995807
  2. https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/gulf-oil-flows-dip-october-post-iran-war-high-data-shows/
  3. https://whtc.com/2026/11/03/gulf-oil-flows-dip-in-october-from-post-iran-war-high-data-shows/
  4. https://www.theolympian.com/news/business/article317901969.html
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