Palantir lifts 2026 outlook as U.S. commercial leads

Palantir Technologies raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook after reporting a sharp acceleration in third-quarter revenue and profitability. Revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, reached about $2.31 billion, up 96% from a year earlier and above analyst expectations of $2.18 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.44, exceeding consensus estimates that ranged around $0.40 to $0.41. The company described this performance as part of a broader step-up in demand for its artificial intelligence software across both commercial and government customers in the United States.

In conjunction with the results, Palantir increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $8.530 billion to $8.534 billion, ahead of prior analyst expectations of about $8.2 billion. For the fourth quarter, it forecast revenue between $2.649 billion and $2.653 billion. The company also raised its full-year adjusted income from operations guidance to $5.245 billion to $5.249 billion and projected adjusted free cash flow of $4.8 billion to $5.0 billion, while maintaining its expectation of generating GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of 2026.

A key milestone in the quarter was the performance of Palantir’s U.S. commercial business, which outpaced its long-dominant U.S. government segment for the first time. U.S. commercial revenue climbed 148% year over year to $984 million, while U.S. government revenue increased 96% to $953 million. Total U.S. revenue rose 119% to about $1.94 billion, reflecting broad-based adoption of the company’s AI-driven platforms by both corporate and public sector clients.

Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp highlighted that U.S. commercial revenue had surpassed U.S. government revenue for the first time in the company’s history. Palantir now expects U.S. commercial revenue of more than $3.559 billion for 2026, representing growth of at least 143%.

Palantir’s third-quarter profitability improved alongside revenue growth. GAAP income from operations was $1.085 billion, a margin of 47%, while adjusted income from operations reached $1.427 billion, representing a 62% margin. GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.128 billion, or a 49% margin. Both GAAP and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.44. Cash from operations totaled $1.205 billion, a 52% margin, and adjusted free cash flow was $1.216 billion, at a 53% margin, supported in part by significant stock-based compensation and related payroll tax adjustments.

Contract activity remained robust, providing visibility into future revenue. Total contract value closed in the quarter was $2.918 billion, up 6% year over year, including $1.463 billion of U.S. commercial total contract value, which grew 11%. U.S. commercial remaining deal value reached $6.517 billion, an increase of 79% year over year and 4% sequentially. Palantir closed 212 deals worth at least $1 million, including 107 deals of at least $5 million and 64 deals of $10 million or more, reflecting continued large-scale customer commitments to its software platforms.

The company linked its raised guidance and revenue acceleration to rising demand for its artificial intelligence tools among both enterprises and government agencies. Palantir reported that revenue nearly doubled from a year earlier and surpassed $2 billion in a quarter for the first time. It also noted that its U.S. commercial revenue has more than quintupled over the last two years, illustrating the scale of adoption in that segment. Management pointed to a growing divide between organizations that are embracing AI and those that are lagging, suggesting that AI deployments are becoming increasingly central to customers’ operations.