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Market Brief — May 29, 2026

MARKET BRIEF

May 29, 2026 at 21:00 UTC

4 min read
Market brief calendar for May 29

Key Points

  • 01Dell's AI-server results drove outsized gains in its stock and fueled a broader AI-led tech rally.
  • 02BlackRock's model rebalancing sent over $12B into IVV and triggered record outflows from TLH and sizable redemptions from factor and thematic ETFs.
  • 03Global policy settings stayed on hold while April US payrolls and inflation data have left the CME FedWatch probability of a hold near 99.9%.
  • 04Technology led with VGT gains and several AI-linked names traded above three-month average volumes, while defensives and cyclicals lagged.

Global Market Summary

US equities closed at record highs as the AI-led rally persisted, with the Dow (DJIA) up 0.7%, S&P 500 (SPX) +0.2% and Nasdaq (^IXIC) +0.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 was set for an ~8% gain in May. In Europe, the CAC 40 (FRA40) slipped 0.1%, FTSE 100 (UKX) fell 0.2% and DAX (DAX) inched up 0.1% as traders digested Q1 France GDP contraction, while China's Shanghai index (000001.SS) finished flat with the NBS manufacturing PMI forecast at 50.5 after a 50.3 prior reading.

Top Movers

Technology led sector performance with VGT up 1.8% and XLF up 0.6%, while defensives and cyclicals lagged with XLP down 1.8%, XLE -1.2%, XLY -1.0%, XLV -0.9% and VNQ -0.9%. Top gainers were DELL +32.76% after its AI-server results, OKTA +30.06%, NTAP +22.39%, TBBB +15.55% and TEAM +15.35%, all trading above 3-month average volumes. Largest decliners included AMBA -21.41%, GAP -15.40%, ASTS -14.79%, KRMN -12.69% and AEO -11.83%.

Macro highlights

Global policy settings stayed on hold, with the Fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, the ECB deposit rate 2.00% and the BoE Bank Rate 3.75%, while CME FedWatch put the probability of a hold near 99.9% as April US data showed nonfarm payrolls up 115,000, unemployment at 4.3%, CPI 3.8% YoY and 0.6% MoM and core PCE 3.3% YoY. Cleveland Fed nowcasts for May pointed to CPI MoM around 0.46% and core 0.23%. Statistics Canada said real GDP fell 0.1% annualized in Q1 2026 after a revised 1.0% decline in Q4 2025, leaving output flat QoQ and keeping focus on the Bank of Canada's June 10 meeting with the policy rate at 2.25%, while the US goods trade deficit narrowed to $82.4B in April as exports rose about 4% and crude exports topped 6.4M bpd; crude prices fell roughly 1.5%–2% and the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped about 0.12% on tentative US–Iran ceasefire headlines to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease some oil sanctions.

News that moved markets

Dell Technologies (DELL) jumped 32.76% after reporting $16.1B in quarterly AI-server revenue, a 757% YoY increase, raising its full-year revenue outlook to about $167B and delivering adjusted EPS of $4.86 versus $2.94 consensus. An AI-led rally broadened to autos, with Ford shares up more than 40% for May, their biggest monthly gain since 2009, while Bloomberg reported the Nasdaq 100 was set for an ~8% advance for the month as US stocks pushed to record highs. Portfolio rebalancing drove heavy ETF flows as BlackRock cut the equity overweight in its model portfolios from 3% to 1%, sending over $12B into IVV, triggering record outflows from TLH and around $10B of redemptions from factor and thematic ETFs including QUAL, IVE, THRO and MTUM toward IUSB and IALT, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $228.88M of net outflows led by $177.94M from IBIT. AMTD completed its A$280 million acquisition of The Ritz-Carlton, Perth, and Future Fuels Inc. and ValOre Metals Corp. reported completion of Future Fuels' acquisition of Hatchet Uranium Corp. On the announced side, Scotiabank agreed to acquire MapleMark Bank, while Heritage Distribution moved to acquire AM Distributors and Pinnacle Mergers & Acquisitions facilitated the sale of Ferrari of Denver in Colorado.

Upcoming session watchlist

  • 01CN NBS Manufacturing PMI (May) — forecast 50.5 vs 50.3 prior, Jun 01, 01:45 AM | Gauges manufacturing activity and new orders, indicating near-term growth momentum.
  • 02US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) — consensus 52.6 vs 52.7 prior, Jun 01, 02:00 PM | Gauges factory activity and demand, informing near-term manufacturing growth momentum.

Key Takeaways

  • 01AI-led momentum drove US indices to record closes and left the Nasdaq 100 set for an ~8% gain in May.
  • 02Dell jumped 32.76% after reporting $16.1B in AI-server revenue and raising its full-year revenue outlook.
  • 03BlackRock's model cut moved over $12B into IVV, triggered record outflows from TLH and drove large redemptions from factor and thematic ETFs.
  • 04Tentative US–Iran ceasefire headlines to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease oil sanctions coincided with crude prices falling roughly 1.5%–2% and the DXY slipping about 0.12%.

References

  1. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-trade-air-strikes-after-trump-dismisses-report-hormuz-deal-2026-05-28/
  2. https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-officials-mull-raising-rates-curb-growing-inflation-risk-2026-05-29/
  3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/federal-reserve/
  4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/some-japanese-banks-to-get-access-to-latest-openai-model
  5. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/openai-gives-japan-banks-access-latest-model-japans-finance-minister-says-2026-05-29/
  6. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/universal-music-group-declines-pershing-square-proposal-2026-05-29/
  7. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-28/dell-boosts-outlook-to-60-billion-in-ai-server-sales-this-year
  8. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/dell-rallies-about-40-strong-nvidiapowered-ai-server-demand-2026-05-29/
  9. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/judge-pauses-action-on-trump-s-1-8-billion-fund-amid-challenges
  10. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-judge-temporarily-blocks-trumps-18-billion-weaponization-fund-2026-05-29/
  11. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/us-merchandise-trade-deficit-narrows-on-rise-in-exports
  12. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-q1-gdp-contracts-annualized-basis-posting-two-quarters-decline-2026-05-29/
  13. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/scotiabank-to-buy-small-dallas-bank-in-mortgage-finance-play
  14. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/ford-stock-set-for-best-month-since-financial-crisis-on-ai-rally
  15. https://www.reuters.com/business/french-economy-shrank-by-01-first-quarter-2026-05-29/