
Key Points
- 01UK retail sales volumes fell 0.4% month-on-month in September 2026
- 02The September decline missed forecasts for a smaller 0.1% drop
- 03Q3 2026 retail sales volumes still rose 0.7% despite the setback
- 04Warm weather and weaker supermarket demand weighed on sales
September retail sales decline
UK retail sales volumes fell by 0.4% month-on-month in September 2026, marking a weaker outcome than expected and reversing part of August’s strength. The decline compared with market forecasts for a 0.1% drop and followed an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in August, indicating a clear loss of momentum at the end of the quarter.
On an annual basis, retail sales growth slowed to 0.8% in September, down from a revised 2.7% in the previous month and below a 1.0% expectation. Year-on-year sales growth slowed.
Drivers of the monthly weakness
The September fall in sales volumes was driven by softer demand across several categories, including clothing and supermarkets. Non-food stores recorded a 0.4% month-on-month decline, while supermarket sales dropped after registering growth in July and August.
Online clothing retailers suggested warmer weather in September affected sales of autumn and winter clothing ranges.
Online spending values also fell 0.4% on the month, partially reversing a strong 3.0% increase in August. Even so, online sales remained 6.8% higher than a year earlier, and the online share of total retail spending edged down only slightly from 28.9% to 28.8%.
Quarterly trend remains positive
Despite the weaker finish in September, retail sales volumes increased 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2026. Compared with the same quarter of 2025, sales volumes were 1.5% higher, pointing to a still-positive underlying trend in consumer spending over the summer months.
The contrast between the negative monthly reading and the positive quarterly figures suggests that retail activity had been relatively firm earlier in the quarter before softening. Recovering fuel purchases and stronger food-store demand in the earlier part of Q3 helped support the overall quarterly gain, even as September’s performance weakened.
Broader context for consumer demand
Retail sales are a key gauge of consumer spending in the UK.
Total retail spending values still rose 0.3% month-on-month in September, reflecting the impact of prices even as volumes slipped. The combination of a modest increase in spending value, a decline in volumes, and slower annual growth highlights the pressure on real consumer activity as the economy moves into the final quarter of the year.
Key Takeaways
- 01UK consumer spending showed a clear soft patch in September, but the broader third-quarter data still point to moderate growth in retail activity.
- 02Weather-related disruption to seasonal clothing sales and weaker supermarket demand played a central role in the monthly decline in volumes.
- 03Online retail remains structurally strong year-on-year, even though September brought a temporary pullback in monthly spending values.
References
- https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/uk-retail-sales-sep-mm--04-vs-exp--01-prev-07
- https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/british-retail-sales-fall-0-4-september/
- https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-falls-04-mom-in-september-vs-01-estimates-202610230601
- https://www.actionforex.com/live-comments/658444-uk-retail-sales-fall-0-4-but-q3-growth-holds-up-despite-september-weakness/