Analysts Lift Targets Across Energy Sector

Recent research updates across the energy sector reflect expectations that elevated oil, natural gas, and refining margins may persist amid ongoing geopolitical conflict. Morgan Stanley (MS) and RBC Capital adjusted commodity assumptions and company forecasts, while Raymond James revised targets for Canadian and North American energy infrastructure names.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley (MS) noted that the path for crude prices to return to pre‑conflict levels is narrowing, even in scenarios where the US‑Iran war ends. This backdrop drove large upward revisions to price decks and earnings estimates for major integrated and upstream producers.

Chevron’s (CVX) stock has risen nearly 40% so far in 2026, supported by sharply higher oil and natural gas prices. Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott raised the firm’s price target on Chevron (CVX) to $212 on March 27, maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating. The new target implies upside of more than 2% from current levels.

Morgan Stanley highlighted that crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and refining margins are at their highest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The firm raised its 2026 West Texas Intermediate benchmark by 44%, natural gas liquids by 40%, and refining cracks by 35%, and increased average 2026 EBITDA estimates across North American energy coverage by about 40%.

Chevron’s integrated model, spanning the full energy value chain and supported by a low debt‑to‑equity ratio of roughly 0.25%, has historically allowed it to sustain and grow its dividend through cycles. The company has raised its dividend for more than 25 years and currently yields about 3.4%, according to the ETF comparison article.

On March 24, Morgan Stanley downgraded Shell from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight’ while lifting its price target from $80.20 to $95.50, an increase of $15.30 that signals more than 2% upside from current trading levels. The change followed a sector preference shift toward higher‑beta European energy stocks.

Morgan Stanley increased its Brent crude price estimate for 2027 to $80 per barrel and raised earnings forecasts for European energy majors by roughly 100% for 2026 and about 50% for 2027. Separately, Bank of America (BAC) recently raised its own target on Shell and remains positive on the stock, according to the report.

RBC Capital raised its price target on Kinder Morgan by $3 to $35 on March 30, maintaining a ‘Sector Perform’ rating. The revised target implies about 4% upside. RBC cited soaring commodity prices, a management update, and adjustments to expected pipeline ramp‑up, and sees a modest benefit from the winter storm Fern, which boosted natural gas heating demand.

Kinder Morgan, which operates or has interests in about 78,000 miles of pipelines and 139 terminals, remains constructive on US natural gas demand, driven mainly by growing LNG exports. The company expects LNG feed gas demand to average 19.8 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, up 19% from 2025, and to exceed 34 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. Kinder Morgan’s annual dividend yield stands at roughly 3.49%.

Raymond James raised its price target on TC Energy from C$74 to C$78, keeping a ‘Market Perform’ rating. Despite the higher target, the firm still sees more than 11% downside relative to current prices. TC Energy reported comparable EBITDA of $11 billion in 2025, up from $10 billion in 2024, and projects 2026 comparable EBITDA of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion, with higher comparable EPS and capital spending of $6 billion to $6.5 billion.

Canadian Natural Resources was downgraded by Raymond James from ‘Outperform’ to ‘Market Perform’ on March 30, even as its price target was raised from C$55 to C$65. The new target implies almost 4% downside following share gains of more than 43% year‑to‑date on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The analyst described the stock’s performance as unusual given the company’s relatively low leverage to higher oil prices. Canadian Natural Resources reported record fourth‑quarter 2025 production of about 1.66 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and a 15% year‑over‑year increase in full‑year 2025 production to 1.57 million boepd. It raised its 2026 production forecast to 1.62 million–1.67 million boepd from a prior range of 1.59 million–1.65 million.

Equinor announced on March 24 that it has started development drilling at the Raia natural gas project offshore Brazil. Equinor operates the project with a 35% stake, alongside Repsol Sinopec Brasil and Petrobras. Raia, the company’s largest international investment at about $9 billion, is scheduled to begin production in 2028.

Once onstream, Raia is expected to produce 126,000 barrels of oil and condensate and 16 million cubic meters of gas per day, covering around 15% of Brazil’s total natural gas demand. The project’s floating production, storage, and offloading unit is projected to be among the most carbon‑efficient globally and could generate up to 50,000 direct and indirect jobs over its 30‑year life. Equinor executives said drilling, FPSO integration, and commissioning are progressing toward a safe 2028 startup.