Archer Aviation’s Serbia Deal and Valuation Reset

Serbia Names Archer Its EXPO 2027 Air Taxi Partner

In January 2026, Archer Aviation announced a partnership with the Government of the Republic of Serbia, which has selected the company as its preferred eVTOL partner and official air taxi provider for EXPO 2027 Belgrade. The arrangement includes an option for Serbia to purchase up to 25 of Archer’s Midnight aircraft. The deal positions Archer at the center of the event’s planned advanced air mobility offering, giving it a showcase for its electric air taxi technology in a European capital.

Beyond the potential aircraft order, the partnership creates a pathway for Archer to participate in Serbia’s industrial development around rare earth magnets and battery-related critical minerals. This opens the door to a broader role in the European advanced air mobility ecosystem, tying Archer not only to aircraft operations but also to parts of the upstream supply chain needed for electrified aviation.

The Serbia agreement is framed as fitting Archer’s broader thesis: moving eVTOL aircraft from prototypes into everyday infrastructure and turning strategic partnerships into real aircraft deliveries and operating revenue. However, commentary around the deal emphasizes that, in the near term, it is more symbolic than financial, adding a high-profile reference customer and political connectivity rather than immediate large-scale revenue.

Funding Needs Remain Central to Archer’s Investment Story

Analysts and community commentary describe Archer as an early-stage, loss-making business that remains reliant on capital markets. Recent heavy losses and prior equity raises mean that access to fresh capital is still viewed as a key short-term catalyst for the stock, alongside progress on aircraft certification and execution of its Launch Edition programs. The Serbia partnership is presented as an additional proof point rather than a near-term driver of cash flow.

There is explicit reference to funding risk that shareholders “should not ignore,” reflecting the tension between Archer’s expanding strategic ambitions and its current financial profile. The industrial dialogue in Serbia around rare earth magnets and batteries could broaden the company’s optionality, but it is also described as another complex initiative layered onto an already ambitious agenda for an unprofitable, equity-funded business.

This backdrop shapes the current investment narrative: to own Archer, investors must accept a story where future infrastructure-scale deployment and operating revenue are still prospective, while near-term milestones depend on regulatory approvals, program execution and continued financing rather than on the Serbia contract alone.

Divergent Valuation Signals Around Archer Shares

Archer’s share price has been volatile, with recent coverage noting both periods of enthusiasm and caution from investors following early stage aviation technology. The stock last closed at US$9.01, delivering returns of 1.7% over the past week, 10.7% over the past month, 10.8% year to date, and an 8.9% decline over the last year. Over three years, returns are described as “very large,” reflecting earlier phases of investor optimism.

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis by Simply Wall St suggests Archer could be heavily undervalued on a long-term cash flow basis. Using a two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which starts from a latest twelve month free cash flow loss of about US$481.4 million and projects free cash flow out to 2035, the analysis arrives at an intrinsic value of approximately US$83.24 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$9.01, this implies an 89.2% discount on that model.

Community fair value estimates also span a wide range. Fifty three Simply Wall St community members see Archer’s fair value stretching from about US$8.32 to as high as US$83.24, underlining how differently investors interpret the same early-stage fundamentals and prospects. Set against an unprofitable company reliant on capital markets, the Serbia partnership is characterized as an added data point rather than a decisive factor closing that valuation gap.

Price-to-Book Perspective and Market Positioning

With earnings still negative, some observers turn to price-to-book (P/B) as an additional valuation lens. Archer currently trades on a P/B of 3.99x, which sits below both the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 4.17x and a peer average of 4.82x used by Simply Wall St. On this measure, and without a specific Fair Ratio figure disclosed, the shares are described as “about right,” suggesting the P/B multiple alone does not firmly classify the stock as over- or undervalued.

This mix of indicators—DCF-based heavy undervaluation, a wide dispersion of community fair value estimates, and a P/B multiple roughly in line with sector norms—highlights that Archer’s valuation depends heavily on differing narratives about its ability to scale electric air taxi operations and manage funding needs. The Serbia EXPO 2027 deal adds international visibility and potential industrial links, but near-term assessment of the shares remains anchored in execution, certification progress and ongoing access to capital.