Archer Wins Serbia Deal as Polymarket Crypto Bets Cool

Serbia Picks Archer as Preferred eVTOL Partner for EXPO 2027

Archer Aviation shares rose about 1% on Wednesday morning after the Republic of Serbia selected the company as its preferred electric air taxi partner ahead of EXPO 2027 in Belgrade. The world’s fair is expected to draw millions of visitors from more than 130 countries, and officials plan to showcase Archer’s Midnight electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft as part of broader transport upgrades.

Under a new framework agreement, Serbia may purchase up to 25 Midnight aircraft, subject to regulatory approvals and the applicable legal structure. Archer did not disclose financial terms or provide a delivery timeline, but the selection marks a notable international win as the company works toward commercial certification of its Midnight model.

Serbia has signaled it wants to use air taxi adoption to support technological development, improve urban mobility and create skilled jobs. Hosting EXPO 2027 is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment across Belgrade, with electric air taxis positioned as a high-profile component of those plans.

Industrial and Supply-Chain Cooperation Beyond Aircraft Sales

Beyond potential aircraft deliveries, Archer and the Serbian government intend to explore industrial cooperation, particularly around materials critical to advanced batteries. The parties will look at work related to rare earth magnets and other critical minerals used in battery production, areas where European supply chains are seeking greater resilience.

Serbia has highlighted battery-related manufacturing and processing as a strategic opportunity. For Archer, collaboration on rare earth and mineral capabilities could complement its aircraft program by deepening access to key inputs and aligning with European priorities on clean technology and electrification.

The partnership is part of Archer’s broader push to expand international relationships as it moves from development toward commercial operations. The Serbia announcement adds a European government to a growing list of overseas counterparties engaging with the U.S.-listed eVTOL developer.

Polymarket Data Show Crypto Prediction Activity Losing Steam

While Archer’s news lifted its stock, new analysis of blockchain-based prediction markets points to cooling risk appetite among active crypto traders. BeInCrypto examined so‑called maker activity on Polymarket over the past 30 days, focusing on wallets that placed orders and provided liquidity in crypto‑tagged markets covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, meme coins, NFTs and airdrops.

The data show two distinct waves of engagement. In late December, daily active crypto makers climbed into the high‑30,000 range, followed by a stronger peak of roughly 40,000–45,000 wallets in early January. After January 9, however, maker participation declined steadily, sliding toward the low‑20,000 range before dropping sharply at the end of the measurement window.

Because the analysis tracks only makers, it reflects wallets actively risking capital rather than users simply filling existing orders or passively viewing markets. The pullback suggests fewer traders are willing to provide liquidity or take directional positions on crypto‑linked outcomes, even as overall user counts on prediction platforms remain elevated.

Bitcoin Prediction Markets Mirror the Broader Pullback

Separate Dune Analytics data focusing on Bitcoin‑only maker wallets on Polymarket confirm the broader downtrend. Bitcoin‑related prediction markets initially showed strong participation in late December and early January, consistent with wider crypto enthusiasm at the time.

By January 18, the number of active Bitcoin makers had fallen to 2,875 wallets, down from five‑figure levels earlier in the 30‑day period. Analysts said this indicates the slowdown was not confined to niche altcoin or meme‑token bets but extended to Bitcoin, Polymarket’s most liquid and consistently traded crypto category.

Weekly, cross‑platform data show Polymarket still accounts for the majority of prediction‑market users, with total weekly users across platforms reaching the high‑200,000s to low‑300,000s during peak weeks in late December and early January. However, the composition of that activity has shifted away from high‑conviction crypto market‑making.

Traders Stay on Platforms but Become More Selective With Capital

Analysts noted a divergence between headline user numbers and the behavior of wallets providing liquidity. Even as overall engagement on prediction markets stayed relatively strong, maker participation in crypto markets declined, suggesting users did not abandon the platforms but adjusted how and where they risked capital.

The shift implies traders have become more selective about committing funds to crypto‑denominated predictions after a period of intense activity around year‑end. For market observers, Polymarket’s on‑chain records offer a near‑real‑time view into how sentiment and risk tolerance among active crypto participants can change within a few weeks.