Bangladesh heads to pivotal Feb. 12 election

Bangladesh will vote on February 12 to choose a new national government and decide on constitutional political reforms, ending 18 months of rule by an unelected interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. That administration took power after youth‑led protests toppled former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, following accusations she had dismantled democratic institutions and centralised authority.

The Awami League, which Hasina led for 15 years, is suspended and barred from contesting this election. The main contest instead pits the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now viewed as the frontrunner in many opinion polls, against a newly formed 11‑party grouping known as the Like‑minded 11 Parties, led by the Islamist Bangladesh Jamaat‑e‑Islami and the National Citizen Party.

The vote is seen as one of the most consequential in Bangladesh’s recent history, both for ending the transitional period and for testing whether the country can restore public confidence after widespread perceptions that past elections under Hasina were rigged and opposition parties suppressed.

Sheikh Hasina remains in exile in New Delhi, and her absence is a central theme in BNP campaigning. The BNP has demanded her extradition, arguing that India’s sheltering of the ousted leader undermines Bangladesh’s sovereignty and justice process. Hasina has warned that excluding the Awami League leaves millions without representation and could fuel boycotts.

Despite those concerns, analysts cited by Reuters do not expect a mass boycott. Survey data suggest that nearly half of former Awami League voters now favour the BNP, while about 30% back Jamaat. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNP secretary general, has argued that although Hasina remains a political factor, her influence will diminish over time because, in his view, she created the current crisis by weakening democratic checks and balances.

Corruption has emerged as the top concern for voters in opinion polling by the Dhaka‑based Communication Research Foundation and Bangladesh Elections and Public Opinion Studies. Bangladesh has long ranked poorly on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, and both the BNP and Jamaat‑e‑Islami have campaigned on anti‑graft platforms. Jamaat’s image as an anti‑corruption force is seen by some analysts as contributing to its resurgence.

Economically, Bangladesh is in a period of restructuring after COVID‑19 disruptions to its garment sector and the 2024 political upheaval. While the Yunus‑led interim government is widely viewed as having stabilised an economy that had been in free fall, critics say it did not deliver deep reforms or sufficient protection for civil liberties and minorities. The IMF projects real GDP growth of 4.9% in 2026, up from an estimated 3.7% in 2025, with nominal GDP around $519 billion.

High inflation is eroding household purchasing power, with consumer prices forecast to rise 8.7% in 2026 and official data showing inflation at 8.58% in January. More than two‑thirds of respondents in one poll cited prices as their second‑biggest concern, underscoring the political stakes around living costs.

Employment is another decisive issue in a country where an estimated 40% of citizens are under 30. The 2024 uprising was triggered in part by anger over a government job quota system viewed as unfair. The interim administration has focused on reforming that system, but many young people say broader job creation has lagged after months of instability.

Both leading blocs have tailored pledges to this demographic. The BNP has promised to create 10 million to 15 million jobs within its first 18 months in office if elected. Jamaat‑e‑Islami has emphasised skills development and regional economic stability as levers for employment growth. Voters interviewed by AP expressed hopes that a return to an elected government would restore law and order and civil liberties, but also voiced unease about possible instability and marginalisation of women and minorities.

Security and minority protection are prominent concerns following a reported surge in attacks on Hindus since Hasina’s ouster. Bangladesh is about 90% Muslim, with more than 13 million Hindus who had traditionally formed a core Awami League constituency. Community leaders told the Indian Express that roughly 2,700 targeted incidents against Hindus have occurred during the 18 months of interim rule, including lethal violence documented by groups such as Ain o Salish Kendra and the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council.

Many voters link this deterioration to a broader collapse in law and order after 2024. A 62‑year‑old street vendor told AP he wanted the next government to prevent riots and killings. With BNP and Jamaat‑e‑Islami advancing, some Hindus fear a rollback in protections, citing what they describe as those parties’ poor historical record on minority safety.

The February 12 election also marks a break from decades in which Bangladesh was led by female prime ministers. Khaleda Zia, a former premier and long‑time BNP leader, died just days before the vote, while Hasina is barred and in exile. Khaleda Zia’s son Tarique Rahman is now the BNP’s prime ministerial frontrunner, and there are fewer female candidates running despite women’s central role in the 2024 protests.

The rise of Jamaat‑e‑Islami has amplified anxieties among women voters. The party, once banned under Hasina but now influential again, has issued conservative statements questioning women’s roles outside the home and suggesting restrictions on their activities. Young women interviewed by AP said the prospect of Jamaat gaining power was frightening and warned that growing conservatism was among the most troubling trends in the country’s politics.