Banks map out long term growth for SpaceX

Recent research distributed around SpaceX’s planned initial public offering presents aggressive long term growth scenarios for the company’s revenue and profitability. Investment banks involved in the deal have circulated forecasts to investors as SpaceX conducts IPO roadshow meetings for an offering that aims to raise $75 billion.

Morgan Stanley’s note, cited in multiple reports, projects that SpaceX’s total revenue could reach about $3.4 trillion by 2040. A published summary of the analysis also indicates the bank expects adjusted EBITDA of about $2.7 trillion by that year, underscoring the scale of earnings modeled in its long range view.

Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs (GS) attribute a major share of SpaceX’s modeled growth to its artificial intelligence and connectivity businesses. Morgan Stanley projects the company’s AI unit will generate roughly $190 billion in revenue in 2030, contributing to total revenue that the bank sees near $330 billion that year.

Goldman Sachs’ research, as reported, presents an even larger 2030 contribution from AI. The bank projects SpaceX’s AI revenue will reach about $322 billion by 2030. In the same modeling, Goldman Sachs is described as forecasting total revenue of roughly $474 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $352 billion by 2030.

The differing figures highlight varying assumptions on the pace and scale of expansion for SpaceX’s AI operations and related connectivity services. However, both sets of projections emphasize that AI is expected to be a central driver of the company’s financial performance over the coming decade.

SpaceX has begun meeting with investors as part of its IPO roadshow, according to reports summarizing the bank research. The company is aiming to raise $75 billion in the offering, positioning the deal among the larger equity raises in public markets.

Morgan Stanley is listed as a lead underwriter for the IPO, alongside Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup (C) and J.P. Morgan (JPM). These institutions are distributing their respective research views to potential investors as part of the marketing process, outlining scenarios for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and the contribution from AI.

The materials being discussed on the roadshow reflect the banks’ modeled outcomes rather than guidance from SpaceX itself. Nonetheless, they frame investor expectations around the scale of opportunity banks see in AI enabled connectivity and related services as SpaceX moves toward a public listing.