Coinbase ramps up USDC and subscriptions

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) has been shifting from a pure crypto trading venue to a broader financial infrastructure platform. The company now operates twelve product lines and serves over 100 million users, positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. crypto market.

Coinbase shares were trading at $211.63 as of April 20, according to Yahoo Finance, implying trailing and forward price-to-earnings ratios of 47.56 and 60.24. Another snapshot around the time of its latest partnership showed the stock at $199.77, after a 24.0% gain over the prior 30 days and a 271.4% return over three years, though returns over the year to date, one year, and five years were negative.

Analyst and model-based assessments cited in the reports point to higher estimated values than these spot prices. A base-case discounted cash flow analysis referenced in a bullish thesis sets a target of $245 per share, while Simply Wall St notes a consensus analyst target of $240.76, about 17% above the $199.77 trading level it reported.

At the same time, Simply Wall St’s own valuation framework flags the shares as trading about 243% above its estimate of fair value, characterizing the stock as overvalued on that basis. This contrast underscores differing views on how to price Coinbase’s growth prospects and risk profile.

Coinbase’s revenue mix has changed markedly in recent years. In 2021, it generated $7.8 billion in revenue that relied almost entirely on trading fees. A crypto market downturn in 2022 cut revenues by more than 50%, highlighting the vulnerability of a transaction-driven model.

By 2025, annual revenue had recovered to above $7 billion, with only half coming from trading. High-growth, high-margin areas such as Coinbase One memberships, consumer staking, Prime custody, USDC stablecoin revenue, and the Base layer-2 app have helped create a more diversified and scalable base.

Subscription and services revenue has grown at roughly a 53% compound annual rate since 2021, according to the bullish thesis. Supporters argue this shift makes revenue more recurring and sticky, as customers engage with custody, membership, and infrastructure services rather than relying solely on trading activity.

Coinbase has also emphasized trust and regulatory compliance. It is described as the custodian for over 80% of U.S. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum exchange-traded funds, and it benefits from stablecoin yields and sequencer fees within the Base ecosystem. Regulatory milestones, including dismissal of an SEC case, have reduced some uncertainty, though a 2025 data breach showed that operational risks remain.

A new partnership with payments platform Nium places USDC stablecoin at the center of Coinbase’s latest push into real-world payment flows. The collaboration aims to let companies worldwide use USDC for cross-border payouts, treasury management, and everyday payments at scale.

The tie-up is intended to connect crypto infrastructure with existing payment rails, integrating USDC into the "financial plumbing" used for cross-border transactions. This further embeds Coinbase in a growing stablecoin payment and liquidity network, adding another use case for its stablecoin-related revenues.

For investors tracking stablecoins in payments, the Nium deal highlights how USDC is being incorporated into business payments rather than only trading or on-chain activity. Future trends in transaction volumes, partner adoption, and potential additional collaborations around USDC are cited as areas to watch for assessing Coinbase’s role in the broader payments ecosystem.

The reports also note competition from U.S.-compliant crypto exchanges, fintech companies such as Robinhood (HOOD) and PayPal (PYPL), and decentralized platforms. Despite this, Coinbase is described as maintaining a leading position in compliance, institutional custody, and ecosystem breadth as it transitions toward a crypto financial infrastructure model.