Iran power struggle shuts Hormuz again

Iran has again closed the Strait of Hormuz in a standoff with the United States, days after briefly declaring the key waterway open following a ceasefire in Lebanon. The closure affects a route through which a significant share of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally transits.

Tehran now says the strait will not reopen unless the United States ends its blockade of Iranian ports. The move comes as mediation efforts continue after high-level talks in Pakistan between U.S. and Iranian delegations failed to yield a final agreement aimed at ending the conflict between the United States and Iran.

A two-week ceasefire is scheduled to end on Wednesday unless renewed, adding time pressure to negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump has said there are “very good conversations” with Iran but warned Tehran against trying to “blackmail” Washington over control of the waterway.

Reports indicate a widening rift between Iran’s diplomatic corps and its powerful military faction, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had publicly declared the strait “completely open,” signaling willingness to compromise under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

Within hours, the IRGC reversed course. Revolutionary Guard gunboats reportedly fired on commercial vessels near the Omani coast and issued VHF radio warnings declaring the strait unsafe or closed, measures that, along with attacks and insurance actions, effectively halted most commercial traffic, underlining the military’s influence over strategic assets.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf acknowledged “progress” in talks with Washington but said “many gaps” remain and that Tehran is “still far from the final discussion.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any attempt to pass through the strait without permission would be considered cooperation with the enemy and that offending vessels would be targeted.

The renewed closure also reflects deeper fractures inside Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Observers note that the absence of a single dominant arbitrator has allowed hard-line elements to operate with greater autonomy within what is described as a “mosaic defense” system.

Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security services, said that with the main arbitrator gone, competition between factions has intensified. The episode highlights how overlapping centers of power complicate efforts to present a unified negotiating position in talks with the United States.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen publicly since taking power after his father’s death in the opening strikes of the war. In a written message, he stated that Iran’s navy “stands ready” to defeat the United States, reinforcing the hard-line stance projected by the security establishment.

The on‑off status of the Strait of Hormuz has injected volatility into energy markets. Iran’s brief declaration that the strait was open after the Lebanon ceasefire had sparked optimism and pushed oil prices lower before the subsequent reversal.

With U.S. naval blockades still in place and IRGC commanders acting independently in response to wartime losses, investors face heightened uncertainty over energy supply routes. The continued closure amplifies risks for commercial shipping and global trade flows through the region.

The contradictory messaging from Tehran suggests that even if negotiators secure interim understandings, implementation on the ground may be unstable. Trump has said the United States is “taking a tough stand,” while maintaining that conversations with Iran remain active despite the latest setback.