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Iran Risk And SPY–CWI Performance Split

April 25, 2026 at 16:06 UTC

2 min read

The recent Iran conflict has altered global geopolitical risk perceptions, with military strikes and shifting regional alliances documented through 2025-2026. In this type of backdrop, U.S. equities are commonly proxied by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), while broad ex-U.S. exposure is captured by funds such as SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-US (CWI), iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. (ACWX), and Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU).

Historically, several Iran-centered flare-ups have coincided with periods where SPY outperformed international equity ETFs. Around the 2020 Qassem Soleimani strike and subsequent retaliation, SPY rose roughly 4-5% into late February, versus about 1-2% for ACWX and VXUS before the COVID shock became dominant. During 2019 tanker and Saudi facility attacks, U.S. benchmarks again showed relative resilience versus EFA and EEM over subsequent months.

In the 2011-2012 Iran nuclear standoff, SPY outpaced EFA over roughly nine months, although Eurozone stress was a major additional driver. Across these episodes, relative U.S. strength emerged when markets treated Iran-related tension as a general global risk increase rather than a uniquely U.S.-focused threat. However, the pattern is conditional and historically mixed, and the current 2025-2026 Iran war is only one factor among others such as interest-rate dynamics, growth differentials, technology leadership, and China’s slowdown.

As a result, any interpretation of SPY versus CWI, ACWX, or VEU performance around the latest Iran conflict must account for multiple overlapping macro forces. The verified history supports a tendency for U.S. equities to show resilience in several Iran-linked shocks, but it does not establish a guaranteed or standalone structural advantage for SPY in every Iran-related episode.

References

  1. 1. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/us-israel-bomb-iran-a-timeline-of-talks-and-threats-leading-up-to-attacks
  2. 2. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/four-scenarios-for-geopolitics-after-the-iran-war/
  3. 3. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/The-Iran-War-and-The-Global-Terrorism-Threat.pdf
  4. 4. https://www.ssga.com/fi/en_gb/institutional/insights/mind-on-the-market-06-april-2026
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Assets in this article

CWI
ACWX
VEU
VXUS
EFA

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