Micron, Trump tariffs and UK trade tensions

A new 10% global tariff announced by US President Donald Trump has come into effect, adding a fresh layer of uncertainty to global trade. The UK government said that no reciprocal action was “off the table” if Washington fails to honour its tariff deal with London, but also stressed that “no one wants a trade war.”

The British position underlines a tension between protecting agreed market access and avoiding an escalation in trade barriers with a key economic partner. While specific sectors or products were not detailed in the UK comments, the statement signals that London is prepared to respond if it judges that the bilateral deal is not being respected under the new US tariff framework.

The tariff move comes as financial commentators and brokers are already incorporating the broader Trump-era trade and onshoring agenda into stock views, particularly around US-listed companies seen as potential beneficiaries of higher barriers to imported goods and shifting supply chains.

Micron Technology has been a focal point for analysts amid this environment. According to a February 9 report from TD Cowen, the firm raised its long-term earnings outlook for Micron, now projecting that earnings per share could reach as much as $60 in 2026, up from a prior bull-case assumption of $50. The bank cited structural supply capacity issues in the DRAM market that it expects to persist for multiple years, supporting stronger pricing and margins than previously anticipated.

TD Cowen outlined what it called a “gradual re-rating path” toward applying a 12x multiple to a normalized earnings base of roughly $50 per share. Under that framework, the broker estimates that better-than-expected earnings growth could support a Micron share price of $600 over time. The company’s current trading level is about 6% below its 52-week high of $455.5, after delivering a 240% return in 2025 and a further 50% rally so far in 2026.

Micron’s management added further detail at Wolfe Research’s Autos/Semis conference on February 11, backing its HBM4 product and stating it now expects to begin shipping in the current quarter, earlier than previously guided. Leadership also said demand for HBM4 is “significantly higher” than supply capacity, suggesting that demand trends may extend beyond 2026. Micron’s portfolio spans DRAM, NAND flash, solid-state drives and high-bandwidth memory, positioning it in key components used across data centre and AI-related workloads.

The latest US tariff decision is feeding into equity narratives beyond Micron. Multiple stock-focused articles, including on Newmont, Edison International (EIX), Liberty Energy, BorgWarner, Citizens Financial, KeyCorp, PNC Financial and others, reference the idea that certain “AI stocks” and onshoring beneficiaries could see improved prospects under Trump-era trade policies.

In those discussions, contributors highlight companies they view as structurally tied to domestic capacity build-outs or insulated from import competition, noting that higher tariffs may reinforce themes such as US manufacturing, energy infrastructure and technology investment. While these views are framed in investment terms rather than formal policy analysis, they show how trade measures are increasingly being factored into sector and stock-level outlooks.

At the same time, some analysts strike a cautious tone on valuation in specific names, arguing that even with potential tariff tailwinds, upside in certain bank and utility stocks could be limited after strong price appreciation. That mix of optimism around select beneficiaries and caution where valuations already reflect much of the good news mirrors how investors are parsing the impact of a more protectionist trade stance.