Oil Jumps Above $100 On Planned Iran Blockade

Oil prices surged in Sunday trading after the U.S. said it would begin blockading Iranian ports and move to restrict traffic around the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran. U.S. crude futures for May delivery climbed nearly 8% to about $104.20–$104.24 a barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude (UKOIL) for June delivery rose roughly 7% to about $102.29 a barrel.

In percentage terms, Brent crude (UKOIL) gained more than 7% to about $102, and West Texas Intermediate also rose about 7%, according to market reports. The gains pushed both benchmarks back above $100 a barrel late Sunday in the United States.

The move reverses part of last week’s declines during a fragile ceasefire. Brent had ended Friday at about $95.20 per barrel after falling 0.8% ahead of the weekend talks, and futures on West Texas Intermediate had tumbled 13.4% through Friday from earlier levels.

U.S. Central Command said Sunday that U.S. forces will begin blockading all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time. The command stated the blockade will be enforced “impartially against vessels of all nations” operating in Iranian ports and coastal areas on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

CENTCOM also said it will not impede vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz between non-Iranian ports. A separate statement noted that U.S. forces will interdict any vessel that has paid Iran a toll for safe passage through Hormuz and will clear mines in the strait.

President Donald Trump wrote on social media that the U.S. Navy would begin the process of blockading any ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, and warned that “any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” He said he ordered the Navy to find and interdict ships in international waters that have paid Iran such tolls.

The escalation follows failed U.S.–Iran negotiations held in Pakistan. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation, said talks broke down because Iran would not provide an “affirmative commitment” that it will not seek a nuclear weapon. Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said the U.S. failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation.

The conflict, which began when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, had been in a two-week ceasefire agreed on Tuesday. Under that arrangement, Tehran allowed limited ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with safe passage subject to Iranian approval. Marine trackers cited by officials said more than 40 commercial ships have crossed since the start of the ceasefire, including three supertankers on Saturday.

Iran has effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that previously carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Iranian officials, including a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said the “key to the Strait of Hormuz” remains in Iran’s hands and that its armed forces will not permit the U.S. to blockade the strait.

The war and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have triggered what officials describe as the largest oil supply disruption in history. Before the conflict, around 20% of global oil supplies flowed through the waterway, serving major exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran.

Oil prices have swung sharply since late February. Brent crude rose from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times, then fell back toward the mid-$90s during last week’s ceasefire before the latest spike. In the U.S., the national average gasoline price surpassed $4 in late March, and some countries have shortened workweeks and implemented energy-saving measures.

Investor sentiment has tracked the shifting conflict dynamics. The recent truce helped lift risk assets, with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining more than 3.5%, an MSCI emerging-market gauge up 7.4%, and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rising almost 10% last week, while oil futures fell. Market strategists now expect that the “peace dividend” priced in late last week may unwind as trading resumes in U.S. stocks, Treasuries and oil.

Analysts say a full U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and tighter controls in and around the Strait of Hormuz could add further pressure on global oil markets by constraining the remaining traffic still moving through the region. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that any military vessels approaching the strait “under any pretext” would be treated as violating the ceasefire, underscoring the risk of renewed escalation.