US restaurant chains post solid 2025 gains

Four U.S.-listed restaurant chains – Dutch Bros, BJ’s Restaurant, First Watch Restaurant Group and Black Rock Coffee Bar – have reported solid 2025 results and issued 2026 guidance centered on continued unit expansion and positive same-store sales growth.

Across the group, companies highlighted double-digit revenue gains or steady low-single-digit comparable sales increases, alongside rising adjusted EBITDA and improved profitability at the store level.

Dutch Bros Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $443.6 million, up 29.4% year over year from $342.8 million, driven in part by 55 new stores opened in the period, 52 of which were company-operated. System-wide same-shop sales rose 7.7%, with company-operated same-shop sales up 9.7% and transactions up 7.6%.

Quarterly adjusted EBITDA increased 48.8% to $72.6 million, while net income rose to $29.2 million from $6.4 million a year earlier. For full-year 2025, revenue climbed to $1.64 billion from $1.28 billion, and net income increased to $117.3 million from $66.5 million.

For 2026, Dutch Bros expects revenue of $2.0 billion to $2.03 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $355 million to $365 million, same-shop sales growth of 3% to 5%, at least 181 new store openings and capital expenditures of $270 million to $290 million.

On March 2, TheFly reported that Goldman Sachs raised its rating on Dutch Bros from Neutral to Buy, maintaining a $75 price target and citing stronger underlying business performance than the market recognizes and an attractive growth profile within the U.S. restaurant sector.

BJ’s Restaurant, Inc. posted fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $355.4 million, up 3.2% from the prior year, with comparable restaurant sales up 2.6%. Restaurant-level operating profit increased 8.2% to $57.2 million, with margins improving to 16.1%.

Diluted earnings per share swung to a profit of $0.58 from a diluted loss of $0.23 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 7.4% to $35.6 million, and adjusted diluted EPS increased to $0.66 from $0.47.

For full-year 2025, BJ’s revenue grew 3.1% to $1.4 billion, with comparable restaurant sales up 2.0%. Restaurant-level operating profit climbed 10.6% to $216.2 million and margins reached 15.5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $134.1 million, up 14.5% year over year, while diluted EPS rose to $2.16 from $0.70 and adjusted diluted EPS to $2.26 from $1.54.

The company repurchased about 167,000 shares for nearly $5.4 million in the fourth quarter and around 2.0 million shares for roughly $67.8 million over the fiscal year. For 2026, BJ’s projects comparable sales growth of 1% to 3%, restaurant-level operating profit between $221 million and $233 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $140 million to $150 million.

First Watch Restaurant Group reported full-year 2025 revenue of $1.2 billion, up 20.3%, with same-restaurant sales up 3.6%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $120.9 million, and net income rose to $19.4 million. The company added 64 new eateries in 2025, bringing its system-wide locations to 633 across 32 states.

In the fourth quarter alone, revenue increased 20.2% year over year to $316.4 million, net income was $15.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $33.7 million.

For fiscal 2026, First Watch anticipates 59 to 63 new restaurant openings, same-restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3%, a 12% to 14% increase in total revenue, adjusted EBITDA of $132 million to $140 million, and capital expenditures of $150 million to $160 million.

On February 25, TheFly reported that BofA Securities reduced its price target on First Watch shares from $24 to $20, maintaining a Neutral rating. The firm cited weaker increases in same-restaurant sales, lower pricing levels, and reduced expectations for 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Black Rock Coffee Bar reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $53.6 million, a 25.3% increase from the prior year, while opening 12 new outlets. Comparable store sales grew 9.3%, and income from operations improved to $1.8 million from a slight operating loss a year earlier.

Store-level earnings reached $15.7 million, with high margins contributing to a rise in adjusted EBITDA to $6.5 million. For 2025, the company added 32 locations and generated $200.3 million in revenue, up 24.5%, with comparable store sales gaining 10.1%.

Looking to 2026, Black Rock Coffee Bar expects revenue between $255 million and $257 million and plans to open 36 additional locations, while signaling expectations for continued strong same-store sales performance and increasing adjusted EBITDA.