Airbus lifts long-term freighter fleet outlook

Airbus (AIR.PA)’ 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast projects that the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft will expand by 46% between 2026 and 2045. The number of freighters in service is expected to rise from 2,360 aircraft in 2026 to 3,460 by 2045. This updated outlook was presented alongside a broader view of cargo traffic trends over the next 20 years.

To support this fleet expansion and replace older aircraft, the forecast calls for 2,670 freighters to be delivered over the period. These aircraft will both satisfy additional demand and underpin a generational renewal of existing fleets toward more efficient models.

Of the 2,670 required freighters, 1,580 are expected to replace older, retired aircraft and 1,090 are projected to serve growth in air cargo demand. The projected deliveries include 1,140 single-aisle freighters, 860 mid-size widebodies and 670 large widebodies, reflecting demand across different mission and payload profiles.

Airbus expects 970 of the required freighters to be new-build aircraft, while 1,700 are projected to be passenger-to-freighter conversions. This mix highlights the continuing importance of conversion programs alongside factory-built freighters in meeting airline and logistics operator needs.

Regional demand for the 2,670 freighter deliveries is forecast to be led by North America and Asia-Pacific. North American operators are expected to require 925 aircraft, while Asia-Pacific operators are projected to need 850 aircraft. Together, these two regions are set to account for around two-thirds of global freighter demand.

Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are forecast to require 515 aircraft. Latin America is projected to add 165 freighters, the Middle East 125, and Africa 90 over the 20-year period. Asia-Pacific is also expected to remain the leading region for international air cargo traffic, with routes to North America forming the largest market and forecast to grow by 3.8% annually.

Global air cargo traffic is forecast to grow by about 3.2% annually over the next two decades, supported by long-term trade growth estimated at a compound annual rate of 2.9%. Air cargo is described as a vital link in global trade, carrying about 30% of world trade by value despite representing a small share by weight.

Airbus notes that air freight has shown resilience in the face of high fuel prices, geopolitical disruptions and supply chain constraints. Over the next 20 years, increasing numbers of previous-generation freighters are expected to be retired and replaced with more fuel-efficient, next-generation aircraft, including new-build models such as the A350F and passenger-to-freighter conversions of A320, A321 and A330 aircraft. This transition is intended to help operators lower fuel consumption and reduce carbon emissions while accommodating stable cargo growth.