Analysts Lift 2026 Oil Price Forecasts

A September survey of 30 economists and analysts indicates a higher price outlook for oil in 2026, with Brent crude (UKOIL) expected to average $89.05 per barrel. The same poll projects U.S. crude (WTI) at an average of $83.90 per barrel that year. Forecasts for Brent show a wide dispersion, ranging from $77.27 to $97.60 per barrel, underscoring uncertainty around supply conditions and geopolitical risks.

Most survey participants identified supply-side risks as the dominant influence on prices through 2026, rather than concerns about demand weakness. They expect these risks to keep prices supported even as global consumption growth faces headwinds.

Analysts in the survey highlighted ongoing disruption to Gulf exports, including through the Strait of Hormuz, as the principal reason for the higher 2026 price forecasts. Impaired shipping routes and constrained export flows are seen as offsetting worries about slower demand growth.

HSBC described a base-case scenario in which shipping conditions improve only gradually and the Strait of Hormuz remains "structurally impaired." In this view, liquids flows through the strait recover slowly and stay far below the roughly 19–20 million barrels per day that moved before the conflict, limiting available supply to the global market.

Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, stated that his team is not betting on a resolution to the conflict within the next three to six months. This outlook supports expectations that Gulf-related supply constraints could persist in the near term, feeding into medium-term pricing assumptions for 2026.

Surveyed analysts noted that China has been drawing down large pre-conflict stockpiles, contributing to tighter market conditions. Chinese crude imports rose to nearly 9 million barrels per day in August, reflecting continued demand and reducing the cushion provided by earlier inventory builds.

Most respondents expect global inventories to decline substantially in 2026 as consuming countries draw on both emergency and commercial stockpiles. This expected inventory drawdown is a key factor behind the more bullish price projections for that year.

Looking beyond 2026, most analysts in the survey anticipate that the oil market will move back into surplus during 2027. They link this expected shift to gradual improvements in shipping conditions, a recovery in Gulf production, and expanding non-OPEC supply.

As these factors take hold, the tightness that supports higher prices in 2026 is expected to ease, allowing stocks to rebuild. The transition from significant inventory draws in 2026 to a surplus in 2027 forms a central element of the medium-term outlook described in the survey.