ASML lifts 2026 outlook as demand tops supply

ASML (ASMLa) increased its full-year 2026 sales forecast to a range of €44 billion to €45 billion following its latest quarterly results released on October 14, 2026. The updated outlook reflects stronger demand visibility from customers and follows a period of rising equipment forecasts linked to AI-related investments.

For the third quarter of 2026, ASML (ASMLa) reported total net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion. The company also indicated that it expects a full-year 2026 gross margin of around 56%, framing the guidance upgrade within a period of solid profitability.

Installed Base Management sales, which include services and options on systems already in the field, came in at €3.3 billion in the third quarter of 2026. ASML (ASMLa) stated that this figure was above its prior guidance for the segment, highlighting strong utilization and upgrade activity across its existing tool base.

The combination of robust system sales and higher-than-expected Installed Base Management revenue underpinned the company’s overall quarterly performance. This strength contributed to management’s confidence in raising the full-year sales forecast while maintaining a high gross margin target.

ASML said that, with strong visibility and an order book that continues to increase quarter on quarter in 2026, its currently planned supply for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand. The company linked the higher demand to customers’ short- and medium-term equipment forecasts, which are being driven mainly by expectations for AI-related investments.

In light of this evolving demand outlook, ASML is investigating ways to expand capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase it had previously communicated. Management is also examining options to support the higher equipment needs its customers are signaling, while acknowledging that there will be a gap between planned supply and demand over the next several years.

ASML reported that customers are continuing to increase their near- and mid-term demand forecasts for its lithography equipment. These forecasts are based on customers’ own views of the size and duration of AI-related infrastructure and chipmaking investments.

The company indicated that this rising demand is translating into strong order-book momentum in 2026. While ASML did not quantify the shortfall between demand and planned output, it emphasized that current capacity planning for 2027 and 2028 will not fully satisfy customers, reinforcing the case for further expansion efforts.