Key Points
- 01AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) seeks new Q/V- and E-band spectrum to link satellites directly to user terminals
- 02Shares slipped 0.4% overnight after a Friday close at $39.70 and a fourth straight weekly decline
- 03Herb Greenberg flags valuation at 140x trailing revenue and a $532 million EBITDA loss
- 04AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) targets initial intermittent coverage in five countries before year-end.
Stock pulls back overnight after volatile week
AST SpaceMobile shares slipped 0.4% in overnight trading late Sunday, following a volatile stretch in which the stock jumped nearly 3% on Friday to close at $39.70 but still ended the week down 2%. The weekly drop marked the company’s fourth consecutive weekly decline, and the stock has fallen 45% year-to-date after losing more than half its value over the past six months and touching a 52-week low.
On a separate trading venue, the share price in euros showed a one-week decline of 8.20%, a one-month drop of 37.22% and a one-year decline of 46.22%, with a 52-week high of 112.40 euros and a 52-week low of 34.05 euros. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits has softened to neutral from bullish a week earlier, accompanied by a 29% decline in 24-hour message volumes.
Push for more spectrum and higher-frequency links
AST SpaceMobile’s subsidiary AST & Science has filed to add Q/V- and E-band service-link capabilities to the company’s planned 248-satellite constellation. The proposal covers selected frequencies between 40 and 51.4 GHz, plus downlinks at 71–74 GHz and uplinks at 81–84 GHz, enabling satellites to connect directly to compatible customer terminals rather than relying solely on ground-gateway connections.
The company stated that the added bands are intended to support a deployment model in which small terminal classes can be used by mobile user equipment with varying bandwidths, power levels and antenna sizes. The planned service-link capabilities would complement AST SpaceMobile’s core offering for standard smartphones and would use Q/V-band and 700/800 MHz bands for user terminals in addition to E-band spectrum.
AST SpaceMobile emphasized that its operations are not solely dependent on E-band and that the broader spectrum mix is designed to support direct-to-device cellular broadband from space. Some retail traders have interpreted the spectrum developments as expanding the company’s total addressable market and improving its ability to compete in home broadband.
Expansion plans and regulatory challenges
AST SpaceMobile is targeting initial, intermittent mobile broadband coverage before the end of the year in the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia, subject to regulatory approvals. The company has more than 60 gateways deployed, installed or planned, and it works with over 60 mobile network operators whose combined subscriber bases exceed three billion users.
The rollout plan aims for access to 100 MHz of U.S. spectrum and 5,600 activated coverage cells before year-end, up from more than 3,000. Company leadership describes these efforts as steps toward bringing cellular broadband from space into everyday life, while noting that continuous service will require additional satellites beyond the initial deployment.
Frequencies remain an area of contention. Viasat has asked the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to reject an application by AST & Science for additional frequency authorizations, arguing that some requested bands overlap with existing services or are not available under current allocation rules.
Valuation debate and analyst upgrade
Market veteran Herb Greenberg has raised concerns about AST SpaceMobile’s valuation, noting an enterprise value at 140 times trailing revenue and a trailing EBITDA loss of about $532 million. He compared these multiples to those of more established satellite communications companies and highlighted valuation metrics of 16 times estimated 2028 revenue and 324 times estimated 2028 adjusted EBITDA, based on projected revenue of $1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $50 million.
Greenberg pointed out that the company’s network is not yet fully built out and that high short interest and indications of securities-lending stress accompany the elevated valuation. He also observed that the shares remain priced aggressively despite the recent selloff and the stock’s decline from its 52-week high.
An analyst raised its price target to $55.70. The combination of an analyst upgrade, ambitious rollout and spectrum expansion plans, alongside unresolved frequency disputes and stretched valuation ratios, has left investor sentiment divided between growth potential and execution and valuation risks.
Key Takeaways
- 01AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is simultaneously expanding spectrum access and its planned coverage footprint while contending with regulatory and competitive objections over frequencies.
- 02The stock’s sharp volatility, combined with a 45% year-to-date decline, reflects tension between growth expectations and concerns about execution and financial performance.
- 03Valuation metrics based on both trailing and projected results are unusually high, even as a major bank upgrade and retail enthusiasm underscore ongoing interest in the growth story.