BASF lifts 2026 profit outlook after Q3 beat

BASF SE lifted its full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance after reporting stronger‑than‑expected third‑quarter results. The company now forecasts adjusted EBITDA between €7.4 billion and €7.8 billion, compared with a previous range of €6.9 billion to €7.7 billion set in July. Management linked the higher forecast to strong year‑to‑date performance in core businesses and narrowed the range upward.

The company maintained its full‑year free cash flow guidance at €1.5 billion to €2.3 billion. Free cash flow in the third quarter was €523 million, up from €398 million in the same period of 2025. Leadership emphasized that the operating performance of key divisions supports confidence in achieving the updated earnings targets.

In the third quarter of 2026, BASF reported adjusted EBITDA of €1.64 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of €1.50 billion by about 10%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 15% from €1.4 billion in the prior‑year quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin remained stable at 10.0%, indicating that improved earnings were supported by higher absolute profit rather than margin expansion.

Sales in the quarter rose to €16.4 billion from €14.3 billion, an increase of 14%.

Performance across BASF’s segments was uneven, with most core areas delivering strong results. The Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Nutrition & Care segments each recorded considerable earnings increases in the quarter. Industrial Solutions generated adjusted EBITDA of €434 million, well above consensus of €332 million, and achieved a 450‑basis‑point year‑on‑year margin improvement. Nutrition & Care posted adjusted EBITDA of €237 million, topping expectations of €177 million, with margins improving by 530 basis points.

The Materials segment reported adjusted EBITDA of €551 million, ahead of consensus of €514 million, contributing to the overall earnings beat. In contrast, Agricultural Solutions reported negative adjusted EBITDA of €48 million, compared with consensus expectations of €85 million. This unit faced a 17% decline in volumes and a 5% decrease in prices, weighing on group performance. Surface Technologies also registered an earnings decline, underscoring that not all parts of the portfolio shared in the quarter’s strength.

BASF’s third‑quarter performance took place against a backdrop of tighter supply conditions in Europe. Supply constraints linked to the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have supported prices and utilization rates at BASF’s Ludwigshafen site, benefiting European chemical producers. Higher regional prices, together with improving volumes, helped offset rising energy costs.

Notwithstanding the strong group performance, the Agricultural Solutions division remains a weaker spot. Sales in this unit declined by 20% year‑on‑year in the quarter, even as BASF prepares a partial IPO of the business in Frankfurt by mid‑2027 while retaining majority control. Investors are left balancing robust results and upgraded guidance in the core chemicals operations against ongoing challenges in the agricultural portfolio.