China tightens controls on solar tech exports

China has released a draft revision of its technology export-control catalogue in mid-October 2026, identified as Announcement No. 48, targeting key photovoltaic manufacturing technologies. The proposal would add 12 solar-related technologies to the list of items subject to export prohibitions or restrictions, signaling a more controlled approach to the outflow of advanced solar know-how.

The draft sets out a structure that distinguishes between technologies that would be prohibited from export and those that would require licenses or be otherwise restricted. This framework is aimed at defining which parts of the photovoltaic value chain are considered sensitive from a technology-transfer standpoint.

Within the 12 targeted technologies, the proposal identifies certain processes for outright bans. Reported examples include some thin-wafer manufacturing techniques, perovskite and perovskite-silicon tandem cell and module production technologies, and large-scale fluidized-bed polysilicon production. These areas are associated with newer or efficiency-enhancing approaches in solar manufacturing.

Other advanced cell manufacturing methods are slated for restricted or licensing-based treatment under the draft. These include TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT) and back-contact (XBC) processes, which are widely viewed as part of the next generation of high-efficiency photovoltaic cell technologies and are currently central to technological competition in the solar sector.

By separating prohibited from restricted technologies, the draft indicates that some leading-edge methods may still be exported but only under tighter oversight. This creates a potential shift in how foreign partners access Chinese-origin equipment and process expertise for advanced solar manufacturing.

Industry data for September 2026 show that Chinese photovoltaic cell production has been under pressure. Reported figures indicate that PV cell output declined 15.2% year-on-year during the month, pointing to a notable slowdown in manufacturing activity compared with the previous year.

The same data show that average plant utilization in China’s PV cell sector dropped to about 53.5% in September 2026. Lower utilization suggests that a significant share of existing capacity was idle or underused, reflecting softer demand, oversupply, or a combination of market and pricing pressures within the solar value chain.

This pullback in operating rates comes as Chinese manufacturers remain central suppliers of solar cells and related components to global markets. Reduced output and lower utilization therefore have potential implications for international buyers that have grown reliant on Chinese production scale.

The combination of the draft export controls on advanced photovoltaic technologies and weakening production metrics points to mounting headwinds for the solar supply chain. While the regulatory changes target technology flows rather than volumes of finished panels, they could influence where and how cutting-edge manufacturing processes are deployed globally.

At the same time, the decline in Chinese PV cell output and utilization in September 2026 underscores challenges facing manufacturers, including pressure on margins and possible adjustments to capacity. These trends may contribute to continued softness in solar exports if weaker production persists, affecting downstream availability of cells and modules.

For counterparties linked to Chinese solar manufacturing, the evolving policy and production landscape introduces additional uncertainty around access to high-efficiency technologies and the stability of supply. Market participants in equipment, materials and project development segments may need to monitor how the draft rules are finalized and how manufacturers respond to current operating conditions.