EU gas hits multi‑year highs on LNG squeeze

European natural gas (XNGUSD:N) prices have surged to their highest levels since late 2022, with November futures at the Dutch TTF hub rising to around $1,055 per 1,000 cubic meters. In euro terms, these futures have reached about 91.07 euros per megawatt‑hour, placing prices at multi‑year highs as the region enters the winter season.

On another trading day in October, November futures at TTF climbed by 2.89% at their peak to €86.79 per MWh, equivalent to $1,019.83 per 1,000 cubic meters, before easing slightly. More recently, prices have held above €87/MWh, remaining close to the top of their recent range and underlining persistent tension in the gas market.

Spot prices for day‑ahead delivery at TTF have also exceeded $1,050 per 1,000 cubic meters, reinforcing the strength of the rally across the forward and physical markets. Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller has noted that European gas prices have effectively reached $1,000–$1,100 per 1,000 cubic meters, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has not ruled out the possibility of prices rising to $1,500 per 1,000 cubic meters.

The price spike is closely linked to disruptions in liquefied natural gas flows from the Middle East. Continued attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have raised doubts about how quickly regional gas shipments can recover, with LNG exports from the Gulf running around 80% below year‑ago levels.

The reduction in LNG supplies has intensified competition for remaining cargoes, affecting Europe’s ability to refill underground gas storage during the summer months. The situation has heightened concerns over winter availability, with alternative suppliers having limited capacity to quickly offset the loss of Gulf exports, increasing the risk of tight market conditions persisting into 2027.

Market observers highlight that lower LNG inflows from the Persian Gulf, combined with ongoing military actions in the Middle East, have made traders more sensitive to any potential interruptions in gas flows. This sensitivity is contributing to pronounced price movements as winter draws nearer.

European Union gas reserves are unusually low for this time of year, reinforcing the impact of constrained supply on prices. EU storage stands at about 74.6% of capacity, holding 844.56 terawatt‑hours, which is the lowest level on record for this point in the winter season since data began in 2009 and well below the five‑year seasonal average of 89.3%.

Within the bloc, storage levels vary widely. Germany’s gas reserves are at 61.1% of capacity compared with a five‑year average of 88.1%, while France’s storage level is 87.4% against a usual 96.2%. By contrast, Poland’s storage is almost full at 98.7%, holding 36.38 terawatt‑hours, highlighting differing levels of buffer across member states.

Overall European Union gas storage stands at about 74.6% of capacity as of late October, confirming the limited margin available to absorb additional supply shocks.

The situation is reminiscent of the energy crisis of 2021–2022, when European gas prices exceeded €350 per MWh; most energy analysts do not expect a return to those values.

European gas prices have risen more than 220% year‑to‑date, underscoring the scale of the move in a relatively short period.

Underground storage typically provides 25–30% of winter gas consumed in the European Union, making the region heavily reliant on both pipeline gas and LNG imports from key suppliers such as Norway and the United States. Any further disruptions to these flows could increase competition with Asian buyers for LNG cargoes and raise the risk of additional price spikes during the coldest months.