GIFT Nifty hints at flat open for Indian markets

Indian equities are poised for a largely flat and cautious opening on Monday as indicated by GIFT Nifty futures trading close to the previous Nifty 50 close. Around early morning, GIFT Nifty traded between 22,595 and 22,614, with the contract up or down only a few points, signaling a muted start for the benchmark Nifty 50, which had closed at 22,600 on Friday.

The expected subdued open comes after four consecutive sessions of losses for domestic benchmarks. The Nifty 50 fell 2.4% over the past week, while the BSE Sensex declined 2.2%, with both indices dropping in all four sessions amid surging oil prices and elevated geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

On the last trading day, the Nifty 50 ended at 22,600, down 87.65 points or 0.39%, and the Sensex closed at 73,123.83, a fall of 125.56 points. Early trading in GIFT Nifty, showing only marginal declines or small gains, suggests investors are attempting to stabilise after this recent selling pressure.

Persistent strength in crude oil prices is a central driver of the cautious tone in Indian markets. Brent crude (UKOUSD) remained above $115 per barrel, while WTI (USOUSD) traded around $101–$102 a barrel. Oil above $115, combined with a battered rupee and global uncertainty, is seen as threatening domestic sentiment.

High crude prices raise concerns over India’s import bill and inflation outlook, as well as corporate profit margins, given the economy’s dependence on imported energy. These inflation and cost pressures contributed to last week’s decline in the Nifty 50 and Sensex.

Geopolitical tensions in West Asia add another layer of risk.

Market participants are also closely watching the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting scheduled for October 27–28. Uncertainty over the Fed’s monetary policy outlook is contributing to the cautious stance in Indian equities ahead of the decision.

A hawkish policy outlook could keep US Treasury yields elevated and strengthen the dollar, which may limit foreign portfolio investment flows into emerging markets such as India. Conversely, a more measured assessment of inflation and interest rates could offer some support to risk assets.

Alongside global policy cues, the ongoing September-quarter earnings season is expected to drive stock-specific movements. Investors are assessing how Indian companies are coping with higher input costs, currency movements and softer risk sentiment, factors that will shape market direction beyond the immediate reaction to the Fed meeting and oil price developments.