Heathrow trims 2026 traffic and profit outlook

Passenger jet on airport runway as major hub cuts 2026 traffic and profit outlook

Key Points

01Heathrow cuts 2026 passenger forecast to a base case of 83.6m
02Middle East conflict drives about 25% drop on affected routes
03Airport now expects adjusted EBITDA to fall £147m year-on-year
04Heathrow advances third runway planning despite softer outlook

Outlook cut as Middle East conflict hits demand

Heathrow has lowered its expectations for passenger volumes and profits in 2026, citing weaker demand linked to conflict in the Middle East. The airport now forecasts between 80.1 million and 84.5 million passengers for the year, with a base case of 83.6 million, which would represent a 1.1% decline from 2025.

Management described the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as putting “notable downward pressure on traffic”. Routes serving the region are down about 25%, and Heathrow warned that continued volatility could weigh on travel demand beyond the Middle East and across global markets over the remainder of the year.

Current traffic trends remain slightly positive

Despite the softer full-year outlook, Heathrow recorded 32.8 million passengers in the first five months to the end of May 2026. This represented a 0.7% increase compared with the same period a year earlier.

The rise in traffic so far this year has been driven in part by more passengers using Heathrow as a connecting hub. Some travellers have rerouted through the airport as other hubs feel the effects of the regional conflict, providing a partial offset to weaker demand on Middle East services.

Earnings guidance lowered alongside traffic

Along with the reduced passenger forecast, Heathrow expects underlying earnings to fall in 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is now projected to be £147 million lower than in 2025 and £60 million below the company’s forecast published in December.

The downgrade reflects the anticipated impact of weaker traffic and higher operating pressures on the business. The updated guidance underscores how geopolitical tensions are feeding through to both volumes and profitability for one of Europe’s busiest aviation hubs.

Third runway planning continues with regulator talks

While trimming its near-term outlook, Heathrow is continuing to work on its long-term expansion plans. The airport is engaging closely with the Civil Aviation Authority on the regulatory treatment and costs associated with a proposed third runway.

Heathrow has approved new investment to begin work on a planning application for the expansion. The aim is to progress the application in line with the government’s timetable and to secure planning permission by 2029, subject to the regulatory and approvals process.

Key Takeaways

01Heathrow’s reduced 2026 traffic and earnings guidance highlights the direct financial impact that regional conflict can have on a global hub airport.
02Modest year-to-date passenger growth shows that rerouted connecting traffic can cushion, but not fully offset, weakness on affected routes.
03Advancing the third runway plan while earnings are under pressure suggests Heathrow is prioritising long-term capacity needs alongside near-term cost and regulatory management.

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