IG Group cuts 2026 outlook after Q3 revenue drop

IG Group reported that total revenues for the three months to 30 September 2026 fell about 14% year-on-year to around £240 million. The company said the performance in the quarter prompted a reassessment of its expectations for the current financial year.

Full-year 2026 revenue growth is now expected to be in the mid-single-digit percentage range. This compares with earlier guidance that anticipated revenue growth in a range of 10%–15% for the year.

The change in outlook reflects weaker-than-expected revenue generation in the core business and more cautious assumptions for the remainder of the year. The revised guidance indicates a slower growth profile than previously projected.

IG attributed the quarterly revenue weakness primarily to lower revenue retention in its over-the-counter derivatives business. OTC revenue retention slipped to roughly 70% from about 80% after the implementation of changes to hedging and market-making.

These adjustments were identified as a key factor behind the decline in revenue compared with the same period a year earlier. The company framed the weaker OTC retention as the main driver of the reduction in overall group revenues.

The new retention level has prompted investors and analysts to focus on how quickly the group can stabilise and potentially improve revenue capture in its core trading activities.

Despite the downgraded revenue guidance, chief executive Breon Corcoran said the group remains on track to meet its medium-term guidance. This indicates management’s view that the current setback does not alter longer-term objectives.

Corcoran highlighted robust customer growth as an important support for the business. An expanding client base is seen as a foundation for future revenue generation even in a period of softer retention metrics.

Management also pointed to the contribution from the Underdog acquisition. The acquired business is described as part of the growth story and a component of IG’s strategy to broaden its revenue sources.

The trading update and guidance cut triggered a steep fall in IG Group’s share price, reflecting market concern about near-term earnings and margin pressure. Investors will be watching subsequent quarters for signs that revenue retention and growth trends are stabilising.