Japan GDP revision, oil unwind

Nikkei index chart rising with Japan GDP revision and Brent, WTI oil price drop visualization

Key Points

01Japan revised Q4 2025 GDP to an annualized 1.3% from 0.2%, which supported the Nikkei (NKY) and narrowed USD/JPY ranges.
02U.S. president comments and G7/IEA actions triggered a rapid unwind in oil risk premia, causing Brent and WTI to retrace roughly 9-10% intraday.
03China's customs data showed roughly 18.3% Jan–Feb trade expansion, bolstering Asian risk sentiment and the renminbi.
04Oracle (ORCL) beat Q3 FY2026 estimates, raised FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion and disclosed financing actions, lifting shares and cloud/AI peers.

Global Market Summary

Asian equities led gains: NKY climbed 2.88% after Japan revised Q4 GDP sharply higher, HSI gained 2.17% and 000001.SS rose 0.65%. European markets outperformed with DAX up 2.39% and FRA40 up 1.79% as oil risk eased, while U.S. benchmarks were mixed, with SPX down 0.21% and DJIA down 0.07% amid commodity-driven volatility.

Top Movers

Notable gainers: FIGR (+21.29%), NIO (+15.08%) and AXTI (+14.89%). Largest decliners: GSIW (-18.49%), BNTX (-17.88%) and CNC (-15.97%). Sector snapshot: energy ETF XLE (-1.28%), financials XLF (-0.54%) and healthcare XLV (-0.72%); tech ETF VGT was near flat (+0.02%).

Macro highlights

Japan revised Q4 2025 GDP to an annualized 1.3% from 0.2%, led by stronger business investment, which supported the Nikkei (NKY) and narrowed USD/JPY ranges. China’s customs data showed a roughly 18.3% Jan–Feb trade expansion, bolstering Asian risk sentiment and the renminbi. In Europe, a surprise €21.2B German trade surplus was offset by a sharp 11.1% plunge in factory orders, leaving mixed signals for euro-area industrial momentum.

News that moved markets

Oracle (ORCL) beat Q3 FY2026 estimates, raised FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion and disclosed financing actions; the results lifted Oracle (ORCL) shares about 6-7% in extended trading and strengthened positioning for cloud and AI infrastructure peers. Comments from the U.S. president and G7/IEA actions triggered a rapid unwind in oil risk premia, with Brent (BZ=F) and WTI (USOIL) retracing roughly 9-10% intraday, easing safe-haven flows and helping equities recover amid extreme intraday volatility. Monroe Capital Corporation completed an increase to its special pre-merger closing distribution, bringing the total pre-merger closing distribution to $15.9 million (approximately $0.75 per share). Separately, announced transactions included Veeva's acquisition of Ostro and Elsevier's definitive agreement to acquire Mytonomy to expand patient-engagement capabilities.

Upcoming session watchlist

01US Inflation Rate MoM (FEB) — consensus 0.3% vs 0.2% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Measures monthly change in consumer prices, informing near-term inflation momentum.
02US Core Inflation Rate MoM (FEB) — consensus 0.2% vs 0.3% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Gauges underlying monthly inflation trend and short-term price pressures.
03US Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) — consensus 2.4% vs 2.4% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Shows annual pace of consumer price inflation relative to the prior year.
04US Core Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) — consensus 2.5% vs 2.5% prior, Mar 11, 12:30 PM | Signals trend in core prices over the past year.

Key Takeaways

01Asian equities led gains as Japan's GDP revision and China's trade data lifted risk sentiment; Nikkei (NKY), Hang Seng and Shanghai closed higher.
02Oil risk unwind drove a steep intraday decline in Brent and WTI, easing safe-haven flows and helping European markets outperform during heightened volatility.
03Sector and stock moves were mixed: FIGR, NIO and AXTI led gains while GSIW, BNTX and CNC posted the largest declines; XLE and XLV lagged.
04Oracle's beat and guidance lifted its shares and supported cloud and AI infrastructure peers; Monroe's pre-merger distribution and announced transactions added deal-related activity.

References