JPMorgan maps a cautious path for gold

JPMorgan (JPM) has updated its outlook for the gold market, projecting that the metal will average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026. These figures sketch a moderately higher price trajectory into the second half of that year, setting a reference point for investors, producers and consumers assessing longer-term contracts and exposure.

The new projections are part of a broader assessment of how macroeconomic conditions and market-specific factors are likely to shape gold’s path over the coming quarters. They provide a structured view of where prices may stabilize if current trends in monetary policy expectations and physical demand continue.

Despite the higher price levels forecast for late 2026, JPMorgan (JPM) expects gold to remain broadly range-bound in the nearer term. The bank points to softer buying from key demand sectors as one factor limiting upward momentum, suggesting that some traditional sources of support are not currently absorbing supply as robustly as before.

Another factor highlighted is gold’s renewed sensitivity to U.S. real yields. As inflation-adjusted interest rates move, gold prices have shown a tighter response, which can restrain rallies when real yields rise or expectations for monetary easing are scaled back. This dynamic contributes to the assessment that risks around the current price profile are skewed toward the downside.

Taken together, weaker demand in important sectors and a stronger linkage to real yields create conditions in which gold may struggle to break decisively higher in the near term. Within this framework, JPMorgan emphasizes caution, framing the immediate risk balance as tilted more toward potential declines than sharp gains.

In contrast to its restrained short-term view, JPMorgan retains a bullish stance on gold over the longer horizon. The bank expects a rebound beginning in late 2026 and extending into 2027, indicating that current headwinds are seen as cyclical rather than structural for the market.

A key driver of this anticipated recovery is an expected strengthening of central bank purchases. Official sector buying has been an important source of underlying support for gold in recent years, and a renewed or sustained appetite at this level would tighten the balance between supply and demand.

JPMorgan also highlights the role of physical demand in underpinning the longer-run outlook. As conditions evolve and physical buying improves, this demand is expected to reinforce the positive trajectory suggested by the late-2026 and 2027 forecasts. The combination of official sector activity and broader physical consumption forms the basis of the bank’s constructive long-term view, even as it underscores downside risks in the nearer term.