
Key Points
- 01The Fed left the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, producing mixed Treasury moves: the two-year fell while 10- and 30-year yields rose.
- 02SK Hynix's record Q2 profit missed estimates and HBM4 shipment timing concerns sparked a tech-driven selloff that triggered market-wide circuit breakers.
- 03Rate and yield moves weighed on U.S. equities, with Energy leading sector gains while Technology and Industrials were among the weakest.
Global Market Summary
U.S. equities fell as the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% and long-dated Treasury yields rose, with the Dow (DJIA) down 2.2%, the S&P 500 (SPX) off 1.5%, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) lower by 1.7%. In Europe, the CAC 40 (FRA40) slipped 0.6%, the FTSE 100 (UKX) gained 0.3%, and the DAX (DAX) finished roughly flat at 0.0%. Asian equity signals were mixed, as the 000001.SS index was unchanged at 0.0% while South Korea’s KOSPI (KOSPI) fell about 6.0% after SK Hynix’s record Q2 results missed estimates and sparked a tech-driven rout that triggered market-wide circuit breakers.
Top Movers
Sector ETFs showed Energy (XLE, +1.9%) leading, while Technology (VGT, -2.4%), Industrials (XLI, -3.2%), Financials (XLF, -1.6%), and Utilities (XLU, -1.3%) lagged; Consumer Staples (XLP, +0.3%) and Communication Services (XLC, -0.1%) were relatively resilient as Materials (XLB, -1.1%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY, -0.8%), Health Care (XLV, -0.6%), and Real Estate (VNQ, -0.3%) also declined. Single-name movers saw HURN (+40.4%), MANH (+21.3%), LAD (+19.3%), EXLS (+17.9%), and CBZ (+17.6%) outperform, while PSN (-35.0%), LMND (-23.9%), LII (-21.0%), FRVO (-19.1%), and AAUC (-18.3%) were the weakest.
Macro highlights
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting in a 9–3 vote, with three regional presidents preferring a 25 bp hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh stressed 'watchful thinking' and maintained the interest on reserve balances at 3.65%. After the decision, the two-year Treasury yield fell about 4 bp while 10-year and 30-year yields rose roughly 5 bp and 11 bp respectively, pushing the 30-year above 5.2% at its highest level since 2007 and leaving the S&P 500 (SPX), Dow, and Nasdaq about 0.5%, 1.5%, and 0.3% lower intraday. Gold (GCQ26) held near $4,017 as the U.S. dollar index (DXY00) traded in a 101.31–101.64 range alongside oil and Middle East tensions, while desks flagged upcoming July CPI, payrolls, advance Q2 GDP, and June PCE data as key for rate-cut expectations, and a Reuters poll showed Brent at $90.43 and India’s roughly 90% crude import dependence had led economists to cut India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6.6%, complicating the Reserve Bank of India’s task of balancing slowing growth against renewed inflation pressures.
News that moved markets
Greggs shares surged about 16% in their largest one-day gain in five years after the UK chain reported H1 pretax profit of £76.0 million on £1.10 billion of sales, highlighted stronger July trading, and reiterated plans for around 120 net new stores this year toward at least 3,500 sites. SK Hynix posted record Q2 2026 operating profit of ₩60.54 trillion on revenue of ₩79.32 trillion and announced about $31 billion of capital spending, but a miss versus estimates and HBM4 shipment timing sparked a tech-driven selloff that triggered market-wide circuit breakers and left South Korea’s KOSPI (KOSPI) down roughly 6% on the day and about 16% over two sessions. In U.S. tech, NXPI fell about 7.7% after hours to $247.00 after issuing cautious Q3 guidance of $3.65–$3.85 billion revenue and $3.89–$4.32 EPS versus Q2 revenue of $3.50 billion and EPS of $3.61, while MSFT (MSFT) gained roughly 2.7% to $400.99 after Q2 revenue of $90.01 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $4.81 beat estimates and Azure grew more than 30% year-on-year. Borr Drilling completed the acquisition of five rigs through a new joint venture, Qualcomm closed its acquisition of Modular, Criteo completed its redomiciliation from France to Luxembourg as a step toward a U.S. domicile, and Allied Energy Corporation finalised a definitive agreement for a three-phase acquisition of the Puma Gold property in California. Grant Thornton Advisors announced an agreement to acquire CBIZ in a $5 billion transaction supported by New Mountain Capital. Other announced transactions included Bloomberg’s acquisition of Canoe Intelligence, Nocera’s agreement to acquire Taiwan-based QMAX Technology, PetIQ’s acquisition of MYOS, Lafayette Instrument’s acquisition of Avisoft Bioacoustics, and Pye-Barker Fire & Safety’s acquisition of Southland Fire & Safety Equipment.
Upcoming Session: Key Events
- 01JP Consumer Confidence (JUL) — vs 33.8 prior, Jul 30, 05:00 AM | Gauges households’ sentiment and willingness to spend on goods and services.
- 02FR GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q2) — forecast 0.3% vs -0.1% prior, Jul 30, 05:30 AM | Indicates France’s quarterly economic expansion pace at the preliminary stage.
- 03ES GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) — forecast 0.6% vs 0.6% prior, Jul 30, 07:00 AM | Measures quarterly output momentum and near-term growth trajectory.
- 04IT GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q2) — forecast 0.1% vs 0.3% prior, Jul 30, 08:00 AM | Early estimate of quarterly activity, signaling Italy’s short-term growth momentum.
- 05EA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q2) — forecast 0.1% vs -0.2% prior, Jul 30, 09:00 AM | Summarizes euro area output momentum and recession risk signals.
- 06GB BoE Interest Rate Decision — forecast 3.75% vs 3.75% prior, Jul 30, 11:00 AM | Sets policy rate that influences borrowing costs, demand, and inflation path.
- 07DE Inflation Rate YoY Prel (JUL) — forecast 2.3% vs 2.3% prior, Jul 30, 12:00 PM | Preliminary read on annual price pressures and near-term inflation trend.
- 08US Personal Income MoM (JUN) — consensus 0.3% vs 0.7% prior, Jul 30, 12:30 PM | Tracks household income momentum and potential support for consumption.
Upcoming Session: Tickers to Watch
- 01NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) — Fell about 7.7% after hours to $247 after issuing cautious Q3 guidance of $3.65–$3.85 billion revenue and $3.89–$4.32 EPS. Because the update arrived post-close, watch for volatile repricing at the next Asian and U.S. opens as desks digest guidance.
- 02KOSPI (KOSPI) — SK Hynix's mixed Q2 (record operating profit of ₩60.54 trillion on ₩79.32 trillion revenue) and HBM4 shipment timing miss sparked a tech rout and market-wide circuit breakers, leaving the KOSPI down roughly 6% (≈16% over two sessions). Monitor for elevated volatility and cross-market spillover at the next open.
- 03Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) — Led sectors at +1.9% as oil prices and Middle East tensions were flagged and a Reuters poll showed Brent at $90.43. Look for fresh positioning and intraday swings at the next open as geopolitical risk and oil pricing are re-assessed across time zones.
- 04U.S. dollar index (DXY00) — Traded in a 101.31–101.64 range after the Fed left rates unchanged and long-dated Treasury yields moved. Scan for trend shift or consolidation at the next open as offshore desks digest the Fed outcome and fixed-income repricing.
Key Takeaways
- 01The Fed's pause came in a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents preferring a 25 bp hike, reflecting internal policy dissent.
- 02The Treasury curve moved unevenly: the two-year fell while 10- and 30-year yields rose, pushing the 30-year above 5.2%.
- 03Company results and corporate actions drove outsized single-name moves and M&A headlines, producing double-digit winners and steep losers.
References
- https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/fed-holds-rates-steady-three-officials-dissent-favoring-a-hike
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/allied-gold-says-china-s-zijin-gold-terminates-takeover
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/grant-thornton-us-buys-cbiz-in-5-billion-deal
- https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-28/nxp-s-upbeat-revenue-forecast-fails-to-impress-investors
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/hermes-chief-tracks-china-s-pork-prices-to-gauge-handbag-market
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/glencore-says-its-traders-post-first-half-profit-of-3-3-billion
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/greggs-burns-short-sellers-with-rally-sparked-by-summertime-menu
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/wall-street-races-to-sell-spacex-linked-products-as-stock-sinks
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/aramco-mulls-new-oil-pricing-for-asia-as-houthis-threaten-flows
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/us-sanctions-iran-extortion-network-targeting-hormuz-shipping
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/europe-s-hot-dry-summer-raises-winter-power-market-risks
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-29/korean-stocks-tumble-a-second-day-as-sk-hynix-results-disappoint
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-29/sk-hynix-earnings-worsen-ai-jitters-global-tech-selloff
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
- https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-nasdaq-msft-q2-cy2026-202345338.html