Market Brief — July 31, 2026

US equities advanced, with the Dow (DJIA) up 0.5%, the S&P 500 (SPX) up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) up 1.0% as markets traded against a backdrop of unchanged Fed policy and firm commodity prices. In Europe, the FRA40 and DAX gained 0.3% and 0.1% while the UKX slipped 0.3%, with regional performance supported by energy and technology strength highlighted in the STOXX 600. In Asia, 000001.SS was flat on the day (0.0%) while oil held near the $85–$90 per barrel range.

Major central banks stayed on hold as the FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% with balance-sheet runoff caps of $5 billion per month for Treasuries and $35 billion for agency MBS, while the Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 1.00% and the ECB maintained its deposit facility at 2.25%. Inflation and growth signals were mixed, with Tokyo July CPI at 2.0% Y/Y and core at 1.9%, the Cleveland Fed’s July nowcast putting US CPI at 3.42% Y/Y and core at 2.52% Y/Y, US Q2 GDP slowing to 1.5% annualized versus a 1.8% Dow Jones consensus, Michigan one-year inflation expectations dipping to 4.2%, and Brent crude above $89, WTI near $83–$84, gold around $4,160.60, and US 10-year Treasury yields near 4.66%.

Iran’s report that it stopped and attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude higher, with WTI futures closing at $84.67 per barrel and Brent at $90.12 and Reuters citing about a 23% July rise in Brent, while BP began marketing its UK North Sea business, a 117,000 boe/d portfolio estimated at $1.75–$3.0 billion. Hedge fund Situational Awareness, which had run about four times leverage, met margin calls from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America by selling most of its public-equity book to Citadel, cutting assets from near $45 billion to roughly $10 billion and retaining private holdings including an Anthropic stake valued around $5 billion. AI and cloud spending stayed central as Amazon (AMZN) raised capex to $220B with AWS revenue up 37% Y/Y to $42.2B and backlog at $496B, Meta Platforms lifted its capex floor to $130B but signalled weaker near-term sales, Microsoft (MSFT) shares jumped 15% on July 30 after Azure revenue grew 43% and commercial cloud exceeded a $100B run rate, and Morningstar set Nvidia (NVDA) fair value at $280, implying roughly 30%–44% upside and modelling around 80% fiscal 2027 revenue growth. Platinum Equity completed its acquisition of Tangent Technologies from The Sterling Group, while Hormel Foods closed the sale of its CERATTI business in Brazil and Rise Baking Company completed its purchase of Jimmy's Gourmet Bakery. OVH Groupe completed the acquisition of voice-AI firm Gladia, and BNP Paribas unit Arval closed its purchase of Athlon. In announced deals, Alimentation Couche-Tard agreed to acquire a controlling stake in Żabka Group via a voluntary tender offer, and separate transactions were disclosed by NNS in OCI, ImagineX in Payteros, and InterPro in K&K Prairie Recycling Services.