Market Brief — June 25, 2026

US equities were mixed as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped about 0.01% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.5%. In Europe, the DAX (DAX) gained 1.0%, the CAC 40 (FRA40) added 0.5% and the FTSE 100 (UKX) climbed 0.7%, while the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) finished flat. The moves came as oil prices fell into the low-$70s, with WTI near $70, after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz roughly doubled and with the federal funds rate still at 3.50%–3.75%.

XLI +2.2%, XLV +1.5%, XLB +1.3%, XLE +1.0%, XLU +0.7%, VGT +0.3% and VNQ +0.2% were among the stronger sector performers. Weak spots were XLY -1.5%, XLC -0.9%, XLP -0.6% and XLF -0.5%. Single-name volatility was extreme with DPC +42.06%, SNDK +21.52%, TECH +20.08%, BB +19.95% and AYI +17.64% versus TCOM -12.55%, RGC -12.50%, EQPT -11.70%, INOD -10.26% and NUVB -10.06%.

US May personal spending rose 0.7% m/m, beating the prior 0.4% and 0.6% consensus, while personal income increased 0.7% versus 0% previously and 0.4% consensus, reinforcing recent labor‐market gains after May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and earlier months were revised up by 93,000. Cleveland Fed nowcasts for June put headline CPI at 3.96% y/y and core CPI at 2.85%, with monthly moves near -0.02% for headline and 0.23% for core, keeping inflation risks in focus against a federal funds rate held at 3.50%–3.75% and mixed 2026 projections. A stronger dollar, with EUR/USD near 1.1355 and USD/JPY around 161.8, coincided with declines in gold, silver and oil, WTI near $69.90–$70 and Brent below $73, a rally in long-end Treasuries that flattened the US 2s10s curve to about 25 bps, an ECB deposit rate of 2.25% after a 25 bp hike and China marketing up to €5 billion of euro‐denominated sovereign bonds.

Crude prices eased as Brent fell below $73, touching lows near $72.24–$72.44, and US WTI futures traded below $72 and near $69.58–$70 after vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz roughly doubled, at least 20 previously stranded tankers carrying about 35 million barrels exited and officials estimated more than 20 million barrels moved through the strait in 24 hours. Micron (MU) helped revive short‐term AI sentiment by reporting Q3 EPS of $25.11 versus $20.28 consensus and raising Q4 EPS guidance to $30.00–$32.00 versus $24.80 consensus, after its shares had fallen about 13% in one session then rebounded roughly 4.1% in premarket trading, lifting Dow futures around 0.1% and S&P 500 (SPX) futures about 0.3% in premarket trading on June 24. In corporate credit, SpaceX raised $25 billion in a multi‐tranche bond sale, with its 10‐year notes widening to a 1.57 percentage point spread over Treasuries from 1.4 points at issuance and five‐year CDS protection costing about 1.255 percentage points annually per $10 million notional. IsoEnergy completed its acquisition of Toro Energy on June 25, 2026. Announced transactions included Premarket’s planned acquisition of Maklare AI, Cetera’s purchase of Marmo Financial Group, ASP Isotopes’ proposed merger of Noble Africa with ENDRA Life Sciences alongside an approximately $50 million private placement, and additional deals by Falcon Gold, Z Squared, Firefly Aerospace, Onex Partners and Aeroflow Health across mining, data centers, space services, aviation and maternal‐care platforms.