Market Brief — September 2, 2026

US equities rose, with DJIA up 0.6%, SPX up 0.5% and ^IXIC up 0.5% as investors processed higher global bond yields linked to Fed hike odds and US-Iran tensions. Key European indices FRA40, UKX and DAX were down 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, while China's 000001.SS was unchanged at 0.0%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, citing all-items PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and 4.1% on a six-month basis, drove short-dated US Treasury yields higher, with the 2-year up more than 13 bps, the 6-month up 9 bps and the 10-year moving above 4.75%, pushing futures-implied odds of a September hike from roughly 35%-40% to around two-thirds. Global rates continued to reprice, as the US 10-year yield eased to 4.79% after hitting 4.814% intraday, Japan's 10-year jumped to 3.0% and the UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields reached 5.268% and 5.904%, moves that coincided with higher energy prices and renewed US-Iran hostilities. On the data side, Australia's Q2 GDP growth came in at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter versus 0.3% previously and 0.3% consensus, while markets looked ahead to the Bank of Canada decision, where both consensus and forecast pointed to a 2.25% policy rate.

Energy news dominated as US airstrikes on Iran and attacks on two crude tankers near the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent futures 0.8% to $95.40 and WTI 0.5% to $90.66, while Saudi crude exports slid to about 3.0 million barrels per day in August 2026, a nine-year low that added to supply concerns. Venezuela signed new agreements with Chevron and other firms and granted 100-year concessions on 17 oil fields that give North American Blue Energy Partners control over roughly 65 billion barrels of reserves and allow up to 50 million barrels of crude to be redirected immediately to US refineries, shifting perceived longer-term supply dynamics. Outside oil, gold (XAU/USD) fell from around $4,435 to about $4,376 per ounce as Fed funds futures priced 64%-67% odds of a 25 bp hike at the September 15-16, 2026 Fed meeting, and TSMC raised its 2026 CapEx guidance to $60-$64 billion, allocating 70%-80% to advanced nodes and reporting tool demand at about 1.9 times its December 2025 projection as it builds nearly 20 fabs. M&A and corporate transactions were active, with Three Lions Acquisition Corp closing a $100 million initial public offering, Ecobat completing the sale of its lithium recycling business and Enstructure completing the acquisition of LOGISTEC's marine services division to expand its North American terminal and logistics network. Greenland Mines completed the acquisition of a rare earth Nd-Pr magnet and defence-focused mine asset, Nasdaq completed its acquisition of Dasseti to deepen Nasdaq eVestment's AI and private-markets capabilities, and Grain Management formed Rightfiber via a strategic combination while INNOVATE closed the sale of a controlling interest in its broadcasting segment to CONX. CoinShares completed its purchase of Bastion Asset Management, while announced deals included cbdMD's definitive agreement to acquire Twinlab Brands and Plan A Technologies' acquisition of a stealth AI assessment platform to expand technical M&A due-diligence capabilities.