Market Brief — September 25, 2026

Key Points

01A stronger-than-expected consumer-sentiment print and rising oil/diesel prices have driven long-end Treasury selling, pushing 10-year and 30-year yields higher.
02US equities advanced despite rising long-term yields, led by industrials, technology and financials while communication services and energy lagged.
03Nvidia (NVDA) came under pressure after failing to reclaim the $230 level, with heavy insider selling and China exposure weighing on the stock.
04The yen rallied after Japanese officials called it undervalued, strengthening about 0.8% and pushing USD/JPY below its 200-day moving average.

Global Market Summary

US equities advanced, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up 0.93%, the S&P 500 (SPX) up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) up 0.48% even as long-term Treasury yields rose further. European markets were mixed, as the DAX (DAX) rose 0.56% and the FTSE 100 (UKX) gained 0.14% while the CAC 40 (FRA40) slipped 0.04% ahead of German GfK consumer confidence data expected to fall to -27.4 from -26.6.

Top Movers

Industrials (XLI +0.95%), technology (VGT +0.78%), and financials (XLF +0.57%) led US sectors higher, while communication services (XLC -0.90%), energy (XLE -0.89%), and real estate (VNQ -0.20%) lagged. On the upside, PPLI (+11.33%), ALM (+10.65%), MXL (+10.00%), MAAS (+9.55%), and VECO (+9.28%) were among the strongest movers. On the downside, ZS (-10.06%), FRVO (-9.16%), CHRN (-9.15%), PURR (-8.80%), and TWLO (-7.96%) underperformed.

Macro highlights

US long-end Treasuries sold off further, with the 30-year yield rising as much as 5 basis points to 5.53% and the 10-year climbing above roughly 5.22% after a consumer-sentiment gauge beat economist estimates, extending the global bond selloff that pushed yields to fresh two-decade highs on September 24 amid rising oil and diesel prices. Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok warned that record US diesel prices at $6.51 per gallon and the briefly floated 90-day diesel export ban pose an underappreciated inflation risk for the Fed, while Lombard Odier moved to roughly a 2% overweight in US Treasuries as yields around 5% attracted cash from multi-asset mandates. Macro focus also stayed on upcoming data and equity supply, with German GfK consumer confidence forecast at -27.4 versus a previous -26.6, US August durable goods orders expected near -0.4% month-on-month after 1.1%, and GMO projecting US equity supply to grow about 5% annually versus a historical 1% decline, warning this could shave roughly 20% from returns relative to normal over the next 18 months.

News that moved markets

Nvidia (NVDA) came under pressure as reports said shares reversed lower after failing to reclaim the $230 level, with investors weighing heavy insider selling by a senior director and concerns over the company's China exposure. The yen rallied after Japanese officials called the currency undervalued, with the yen strengthening as much as 0.8% to 157.67 per dollar as USD/JPY (USDJPY) fell below its 200-day moving average of 158.47 and banks shifted forecasts to a 155-160 trading range with targets at 158, 155 and 150 over the next 3, 6 and 12 months. In primary markets and energy, Nscale, which plans to list on the NYSE as NSCL, raised $3.36 billion in pre-IPO convertible notes including a $2.36 billion tranche funded at signing and a $1.0 billion NVIDIA commitment that converts into non-voting shares, while oil traders tracked Iraq's SOMO offering late-September crude cargoes at discounts of about $15 to $20.80 per barrel to official prices and three Iran-linked tankers carrying nearly 6 million barrels toward the US. GOWell Technology Limited and Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. V announced the closing of their business combination. Rexel announced an agreement to acquire GCG, and Epiq agreed to acquire Canopy to combine cyber incident response technology and service expertise.

Upcoming Session: Key Events

01US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP) — forecast 1 vs 11.6 prior, Sep 28, 02:30 PM | Gauges regional manufacturing activity and near-term production momentum.
02IN Industrial Production YoY (AUG) — vs 6.7% prior, Sep 28, 10:30 AM | Measures YoY industrial output growth and overall production momentum.
03IN Manufacturing Production YoY (AUG) — vs 7.3% prior, Sep 28, 10:30 AM | Measures year-over-year manufacturing output growth and sector momentum.
04MX Balance of Trade (AUG) — vs $-0.848B prior, Sep 28, 12:00 PM | Indicates trade balance and import-export momentum for Mexico.
05KR Business Confidence (SEP) — forecast 84 vs 81 prior, Sep 28, 09:00 PM | Signals business sentiment and expected operating conditions among firms.

Upcoming Session: Tickers to Watch

01Nvidia (NVDA) — Shares reversed lower after failing to reclaim the $230 level amid heavy insider selling by a senior director and renewed concerns over the company's China exposure. Look for elevated volatility and intraday position adjustments at the next U.S. open as offshore and options flow digest the selling.
02USDJPY (USDJPY) — The yen rallied after Japanese officials called the currency undervalued, strengthening as much as 0.8% to 157.67 per dollar and pushing USDJPY below its 200-day moving average of 158.47 as banks shifted forecasts to a 155–160 range. Monitor for renewed positioning and wider ranges across Asian and U.S. FX hours as desks price the official rhetoric and technical break.
03iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) — U.S. long-end Treasuries sold off further, with the 30-year yield rising as much as 5 bps to 5.53% and the 10-year climbing above roughly 5.22%, and Lombard Odier moved to roughly a 2% overweight as yields near 5% attracted cash. Monitor order flow and yield volatility at the next open as multi-asset mandates implement reallocations.
04WTI crude (CL) — Oil traders tracked Iraq's SOMO offering late-September cargoes at discounts of about $15 to $20.80 per barrel to official prices and three Iran-linked tankers carrying nearly 6 million barrels toward the U.S. Watch front-month futures for repricing and wider intraday ranges as physical cargo discounts and tanker flows are digested into the open.

Key Takeaways

01US equities finished higher despite higher long-term yields.
02Industrials, technology and financials outperformed, while communication services, energy and real estate lagged.
03Long-term Treasury yields extended a global selloff to fresh two-decade highs amid oil and diesel price pressure.
04Nvidia (NVDA) shares reversed lower after failing to reclaim $230, with insider selling and China exposure weighing on tech.

References