Markets brace for Nvidia earnings

Analysts expect Nvidia’s (NVDA) upcoming fiscal second-quarter report to show revenue near $92.2 billion, based on estimates compiled by LSEG. Data center sales are projected around $86.3 billion, which would lift that segment to roughly 94% of total company revenue for the period. The figures underscore how central data center products have become to Nvidia’s overall business and to investors’ expectations for the quarter.

StreetAccount estimates indicate that the data center segment will not only dominate the revenue mix but also drive most of the company’s growth. Market participants are preparing to scrutinize the composition of that data center revenue, with particular focus on how different customer groups contribute to the total.

Within Nvidia’s data center business, forecasts highlight a key split between hyperscale cloud providers and the broader group of AI clouds, industrial and enterprise customers, often grouped as ACIE. StreetAccount estimates cited in recent coverage show ACIE revenue projected to grow about 149% year over year to roughly $43 billion. Revenue from hyperscalers is estimated to rise about 83% to approximately $43.6 billion.

These projections suggest that while hyperscalers remain a large portion of demand, other customer categories are gaining importance. Investors are watching this shift for signs that Nvidia is reducing its dependence on a relatively small set of very large cloud customers by expanding adoption among enterprises and industrial users.

Market commentary also points to an emphasis on how Nvidia plans to support broader customer uptake of its technology. Some analysts have highlighted interest in hearing more about financing or other mechanisms that could make Nvidia’s systems more accessible to a wider range of buyers beyond the largest cloud providers.

Sales of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin systems are another focal point heading into the earnings release. Investors are expected to look closely at reported shipments and the pace of the product ramp as indicators of how quickly newer platforms are being adopted in high-performance and AI data centers.

The Vera Rubin line item is seen as a potential swing factor for sentiment around Nvidia’s growth outlook. Strong momentum in these systems could influence expectations for future quarters and provide additional evidence about demand breadth across different customer types and workloads.

In the days leading up to the report, Nvidia’s stock has experienced price weakness, including a multi-day losing streak and a decline of more than 7% over a recent rough patch. Technical analysis shows the MACD indicator crossing from above its signal line to below it, although it remained above the zero line at the time of the latest review. The relative strength index was in the mid-40s, suggesting momentum had cooled from earlier, more extended levels.

Traders are also monitoring the stock’s trade around several key reference points, including the 200-day moving average and a price area near $195 to $200 that has been identified as important support. The combination of elevated expectations for earnings, heavy reliance on data center revenue and a more cautious technical picture sets the stage for potentially significant market moves once Nvidia releases its results.