Nasdaq’s AI surge mirrors 1990s tech path

The Nasdaq Composite is currently up about 128% in the 918 days following the late‑2022 release of ChatGPT, a powerful advance but still trailing the roughly 151% gain logged over the equivalent window after the December 1994 launch of Netscape’s browser. The AI era is therefore tracking the early internet boom, but at a slightly less explosive pace.

Historical analysis of the Netscape period shows that this earlier path ultimately accelerated into a massive bubble, with Nasdaq gains approaching several hundred percent before peaking around March 2000 and then collapsing sharply. That trajectory unfolded despite significant interim stress, including the Long‑Term Capital Management crisis in August‑September 1998, which did not derail the late‑1990s tech bull market.

In both the internet and AI phases, a transformative technology narrative has been central, with investors extrapolating large addressable markets and future productivity gains into higher growth expectations and valuations. Ample liquidity and supportive policy backdrops have further encouraged risk‑taking, while index performance has been amplified by heavy concentration in a small group of dominant technology leaders.

Investor behavior has also rhymed across the two eras, as momentum strategies, benchmarking to tech‑heavy indices, and a willingness to look through macro shocks have kept capital flowing into growth themes. With the current AI‑linked path still broadly aligned to the Netscape template but less extreme, forward outcomes span an extended bull phase that eventually tips into bubble territory, a multi‑year consolidation where earnings gradually validate valuations, or a boom‑then‑bust de‑rating if AI expectations ultimately prove too optimistic.